Markets likely to make a flat-to-cautious start

The Indian markets continued their bull run for the fifth straight day in previous trading despite weak global cues. While most of the sectoral gauges moved higher, the benchmarks added another more than half a percent. Today the start is likely to be cautious-to-flat for the markets and some consolidation may appear after a series of rally while some sectors may witness profit booking too. The F&O series expiry week is likely to bring volatility. Some of India’s leading industrialists like Ratan Tata and Anil Ambani will appear next week before Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee in the alleged 2G spectrum scam. Meanwhile, the Telecom Ministry will be taking a final decision on 2G spectrum pricing and on those holding airwaves beyond contracted limit of 6.2 Mhz, based on recommendations of TRAI, within next three months before seeking Telecom Commission’s approval.

The finance ministry has said that the draft guidelines for giving new banking licences would be announced by the Reserve Bank of India in the next few days. In Budget 2011-12, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee had said that the RBI plans to issue guidelines for the grant of new banking licences before the close of this financial year.

The US markets snapped the gaining streak on Monday on concerns of Japan’s nuclear crisis and violence in the Middle East and North Africa though, there were good economic reports but investors opted to remain sideways. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with Japanese Nikkei suffering on reports that most of the companies will not be able to report the financials on time while the dividend declaration too may be delayed.

Back home, stock markets in India extended the uptrend on the first day of the F&O expiry week, after vivaciously rallying over two percent on Friday, and managed to finish a choppy session of trade on an optimistic note as the joy of closing in the positive territory got quintupled. The benchmarks displayed resilience as they traded firmly in the green for most part of the day’s trade on the back of heavy buying in rate sensitive counters like Auto and Baking and managed to touch two month high levels. Investors traded with some conviction as growth concerns over Europe weighed on crude oil prices. However, the frontline indices met with stern resistance at the psychological levels of 5,700 and 19,000 as investors took profits off the table around those levels after reports of fierce retaliation between Western forces and forces loyal to Col Gaddafi emerged. The bourses climbed over half a percent in the session despite tepid leads from markets across the globe as investors speculated most of the headwinds have been factored in by the markets and that the companies will report strong quarterly earnings for the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, local sentiments also took cues from CII Survey which opined that the ongoing high inflation and resulting rapid increase in costs has so far been unable to significantly dent the performance of India Inc. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a soft start as fresh worries over high levels of radiation in Japan emerged which delayed efforts to stabilize a crippled nuclear power plant and shoddier than expected earnings reported by some blue chips companies weighed on cautious investor mood. After hitting intraday lows in the early hours, the frontline indices rose to higher levels on the back of buying in blue chips and fertilizer stocks. However, the session largely remained characterized by choppiness as investors seemed reluctant to pile up hefty positions after the recent over five percent rally. On the sectoral front, rate sensitive Auto pocket surged by 1.52% led by heavyweight Tata Motors which zoomed over 3%, being the top gainer on Sensex while stocks like Maruti Suzuki and Cummins India too gained around 1.50% each. The Capital Goods index too remained amid the thick of things. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 127.50 points or 0.68% to settle at 18,943.14 while the S&P CNX Nifty climbed 33.00 points or 0.58% to end at 5,687.25.

US markets closed modestly lower on Monday despite some good economic reports as traders showed concern over Japan's nuclear crisis and violence in the Middle East and North Africa. Oil prices eased a bit as rebels in Libya, gained ground against Moammar Gadhafi with the help of international airstrikes against Gadhafi’s forces. On the domestic front, the Commerce Department said that consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in four months in February, though some of the increase was driven by higher gas prices.

On the same time, the National Association of Realtors said more Americans signed contracts to buy homes in February than economists were expecting. Sales rose in every region but the Northeast, but remained below what is considered a healthy level. Sales agreements for homes unexpectedly rose 2.1 percent last month to a reading of 90.8. Signings were 19.6 percent above June's index reading, the low point since the housing bust.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 22.71 points, or 0.19 percent, to 12,197.88. The broader S&P 500 index dipped by 3.61 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,310.19, while the Nasdaq composite declined by 12.38 points, or 0.45 percent, to 2,730.68.

Crude prices fell on Monday on report of Libya's rebels successes against forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi. Qatar became the first Arab country to recognize Libya’s rebels as the people's sole legitimate representative, a day after a senior Libyan rebel official said Qatar had agreed to market crude oil produced from east Libyan fields no longer under the control of leader Muammar Gaddafi. However the dollar grew stronger which can pressure oil prices by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive.

Benchmark crude for May delivery fell $1.78, or 1.7 percent, to $103.62 a barrel, after trading in a range of $103.60 to $105.76 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude futures for May delivery settled down 79 cents at $114.80 a barrel on the ICE.

Domestic markets may extend the rally mood with positive start

The Indian markets despite a dull day of trade were able to garner gain of about a percent in previous session, not only the blue chips but the broader markets too participated equally in the rally. All the rate sensitive’s gained despite the inflation returning into double digit, food price index rose 10.02% on annual basis during week-ended March 12, as compared with 9.42% recorded in the previous week. Today the start is likely to be good on sanguine global cues; also the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that it would be possible to maintain inflation at a moderate level on account of measures taken by the government. He further said the Centre and the states have to work collectively to remove supply bottlenecks, a move to tame inflation. Meanwhile, India is expected to see 5.4 per cent growth in the farm sector in the current fiscal 2010-11. In the Annual Report of the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation under Ministry of Agriculture, the department has expressed satisfaction over the growth of investment and capital formation in agriculture in the recent past. However, the PSU oil marketing companies are not likely to get any respite soon, as the international crude prices are continuing to remain at elevated levels while it has been reported that the government has no plans to raise petrol and diesel prices until the completion of elections in some states.

The US markets added strength on Thursday supported by strong corporate earnings and fall in jobless claims data indicating the labor market is healing and employers may be stepping up hiring. Most of the Asian markets have made a good start with Japanese leading the pack as construction firms gained on optimism that demand will grow as Japan rebuilds after its worst earthquake.

Back home, it turned out to be a stable day for the Indian benchmarks which sustained sanguinity for the third successive session and climbed well over half a percent point and managed to get the better of the crucial support levels. Optimistic cues from across the globe underpinned the investors’ conviction locally as they overlooked the worrisome food inflation numbers which increased for the second consecutive week ended March 12. After early weakness, the crude oil prices bounced back due to rising fears over supply disruptions as Gaddafi denied surrendering to Western forces in any circumstances and data showing US gasoline stocks fell more than expected in the week to March 18. While marketmen remained of the belief that spiraling oil prices and towering inflation numbers are going to make it difficult for an emerging market like India to log higher than expected growth regardless of scoring higher on the GDP scale. The decline in index heavyweight Reliance which shaved off around a quarter percent point was off-set by the upsurge in rate-sensitive counters. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, which traded below 5,400 levels three sessions ago, ricocheted above the crucial 5,500 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, Sensex garnered close to one hundred fifty points and regained the psychological 18,350 mark. The broader markets too traded on healthy note and performed in tandem with their larger peers. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a gap up start as leads from the global front underpinned regional sentiments. Optimistic close on Wall Street, in-line growth in New Zealand’s Q4 GDP numbers, and the marginal wilt in crude oil prices filliped investors’ mood as they overlooked the weakness in Japanese markets which fell on worries over parts shortage and production halt. The frontline indices traded in a narrow band through the day’s trade led by gains in realty and auto stocks. The fifty stock nifty slipped below the crucial 5,500 level in the early moments of second half but recovered immediately to eventually settle around the high point of the day because of sustained buying interests across the board. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 144.58 points or 0.79% to settle at 18,350.74 while the S&P CNX Nifty climbed 42.15 points or 0.77% to end at 5,522.40.

The US markets went for a smart rally on Thursday on the back of confident corporate earnings and signs of a stronger job market. Earnings growth has been strong across US companies and Software company Red Hat Inc., chip maker Micron Technology Inc. and Chef Boyardee maker ConAgra Foods Inc. all reported profits that beat expectations. There was good news from the jobs market too; government said fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The Labor Department reported that the number of people seeking benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 382,000 in the week ended March 19, the fourth drop in the past five weeks. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to 385,250, the lowest since July 2008. However, in a disappointment the Commerce Department separately released February durable goods orders data, which showed companies trimmed their orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, signaling business investment falling for a second month.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 84.54 points, or 0.70 percent, to close at 12,170.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose by 12.12 points, or 0.93 percent, to 1,309.66, while the Nasdaq composite index closed higher by 38.12 points, or 1.41 percent, to 2,736.42.

Crude prices edged up on Thursday in a choppy trading as Middle East unrest and the Libya conflict raised concerns about supply disruption supporting the prices, while euro zone debt problems weighed on Brent prices. Though, Portugal is unlikely to ask the European Union for a financial bailout during an EU leaders' summit, but it cannot be ruled out. There were mixed economic reports, the durable goods report offset a report showing US initial jobless claims fell.

Benchmark crude for May rose 22 cents or 0.2 percent to $105.97 a barrel, after trading from $105.11 to $106.69 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May rose 17 cents to settle at $115.72 a barrel on the ICE.

Markets likely to get a positive start on good global cues

The Indian markets remained in jubilant mood for the second consecutive day with benchmarks gaining over one percent each in last session, there were lots of short covering and the gains remained broad based, though the PSU oil marketing companies remained a bit under pressure. Today the start is likely to be good with global cues indicating for a positive start, fund buying in realty, banking and pharma may continue for yet another day, while the latest governments’ proposal of lowering taxes in some sectors may continue to support the stocks move further high. There is a new listing of one of India’s leading women’s innerwear ' Lovable Lingerie' today that too is likely to keep the markets buzzing. The issue price has been fixed at Rs 205, at the higher end of price band of Rs 195-205 a share. The issue got overwhelming response and was subscribed around 35 times raising around Rs 93 crore.

In a latest development Capital market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has ordered restriction on transmitting ‘unauthenticated news’ by brokers and wealth managers on blogs and mobile phones. The Advice from the SEBI also says that broking firms will have to ensure that staffs don’t circulate rumours, or unverified information, obtained from client, industry or any other sources. They will also have to restrict their employees from accessing blogs and messenger sites.

The US markets closed modestly higher as the Japanese worries along with report that new single-family homes plunged to the lowest on record in February capped the gains. Most of the Asian markets have made a positive start though the Japanese Nikkei is trading marginally lower on government estimation that the direct damage from a deadly earthquake and tsunami that struck the country’s northeast this month was at as much as $310 billion.

Back home, Indian benchmarks carried forward their northbound journey for yet another session on Wednesday, as optimistic cues from across the globe helped the indices to surpass crucial support levels of 5,400 and 18,000 and move in higher trajectories. Sentiments remained sanguine right from the start of trade as tabling of the banking sector amendment bill and the Constitution Amendment Bill in parliament on Tuesday buttressed the chances of a rebound for the domestic indices. The discouraging leads from Japanese markets which plunged over one and half a percent too went unnoticed amid reports that billionaire investor Warren Buffet intends to use the huge cash pile of his flagship firm Berkshire Hathaway to acquire companies in India, an investment destination Buffett feels is too big to be called an emerging market. Meanwhile, spiraling crude oil showed little signs of dying down as they toped $105 a barrel amid the ongoing turmoil in Libya and other parts of the Middle East, thereby raising skepticism over the advance on fears that the market lacks clear direction amid mounting global and local uncertainties. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, settled just below the crucial 5,500 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, Sensex garnered a double century to regain the psychological 18,200 mark. The broader markets too remained amid the thick of the things but failed to outperform their larger peers. Rate sensitive banking index soared after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed changes to tax and banking laws. The reform bill seeks to make voting rights for bank shareholders proportional to their holdings, a move believed to boost the attractiveness of state-owned banks for investors. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmarks had slipped to their intra-day low levels in the initial moments of trade tracking weak cues from the Wall Street and towering crude oil prices on concerns that conflicts in Middle East could pinch oil supplies. However the frontline indices staged a strong and stable pullback thereafter led by gains in banking, FMCG, healthcare and metal stocks. The indices gradually gained traction and sailed beyond the crucial support levels of 5,450 and 18,200 in the absence of any bouts of profit booking. Sustained buying interests across the board through the session helped the bourses eventually snap the day’s trade around the high point of the day with over a percent gains. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 217.86 points or 1.21% to settle at 18,206.16 while the S&P CNX Nifty climbed 66.40 points or 1.23% to end at 5,480.25.

US markets closed modestly higher on Wednesday, worries of Japanese crisis was still looming and the stocks remained lower for most of the day however a spurt in energy stocks was seen after Energy Department report showed that gasoline consumption continues to grow despite sharp price increases at the pump, it shows that higher fuel cost has not made much impact. Meanwhile the Japanese government estimated that rebuilding costs for the earthquake could be as high as $300 billion, dragging the economy growth by 0.5 percent this year due to the widespread devastation. Also there was a disappointment from the housing front; sales of new single-family homes plunged to the lowest on record in February.

Commerce Department reported that home sales fell 17 percent to 250,000, well below the 700,000 rate being expected, it was the third straight monthly drop. That decline in activity is weighing down the construction industry, which in the past has fueled economic recoveries.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 67.39 points, or 0.56 percent, to close at 12,086.02.The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 3.77 points, or 0.29 percent, to close at 1,297.54. The Nasdaq composite index rose 14.43, or 0.54 percent, to 2,698.30.

Crude oil futures moved higher on Wednesday as Middle East crisis aggravated after attacks on Israel, unrest in Yemen and other neighbouring countries. Falling gasoline stocks in the United States too supported the prices to touch two and half year peak above $105 a barrel at settlement. US gasoline inventories fell 5.32 million barrels in the week to March 18. The stocks fell in the first three weeks in March, which was the biggest decline for the period since 1990 even though refiners boosted utilization rates by 0.7 percentage point.

Meanwhile, Yemen's president offered to step down by the end of the year in a bid to appease opposition groups demanding his resignation, but they showed no sign of easing up on efforts to force him out.

Benchmark crude for May delivery rose 78 cents, or 0.74 percent, to settle at $105.75 a barrel, after trading in a range of $104.38 to $106.34 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent May crude futures pared losses and settled down 15 cents at $115.55 on the ICE.

Domestic markets likely to consolidate after a big rally

The Indian markets went for a rally in previous session with a broad based buying after round of sluggishness. Today the start is likely to be flat-to-cautious as the global cues are not very supportive. Sugar stocks that have rallied in last session may move up further as government allowed sugar exports to the tune of 5 lakh tonnes. The move comes after a delay of about 3 months after the Food Minister announced exports of 5 lakh tonnes of sugar in December last year. But, the issue was referred to EgoM in the wake of surging inflation. There will be lots of scrip specific actions keeping the market buzzing however the continued rise in crude prices is likely to put further pressure on the PSU oil marketing companies.

Meanwhile, the government cleared the Bureau of Indian Standards (Amendment) Bill, 2011 paving the way for introduction of mandatory hallmarking of more products including gold. At present, about 77 items including cement, mineral water and milk products are certified with mandatory hallmarking under the BIS Act to conform to the quality level of goods and services to consumers.

The US markets closed marginally lower on Tuesday, though there was no economic report to influence the trade but the continuous rise in crude prices led the momentum go slow. The weakening of housing markets weighed on the sentiment. Most of the Asian markets have made a soft start and the Japanese markets are once again reeling deep in red, it has been reported by the nuclear safety agency that workers at Japan nuclear plant are unable to continue work at reactor no.2 due to high radiation levels.

Back home, after remaining most part of the session around the crucial support levels of 5,400 and 18,000, the domestic benchmarks have snapped the day with about a percent gain but off the day’s high level. The local markets were outclassed by the markets across the globe by a large extent on Monday, however, the frontline indices smartly bounced back in day’s trade as many investors, smarting from huge losses, took up reverse positions, vowing to avenge the next day. Sanguine local and global cues too buttressed the chances of a rebound for the domestic indices which were reeling under the pressure of spiraling crude oil prices for three consecutive days. The consolidation in crude prices was seen as an opportunity by the local investors who resorted to broad based buying as they closely watched the developments in Parliament where the Indian finance Minister tabled GST and Banking Laws Bill. On the sectoral front, the high beta Realty index amassed 2.19% as strong position build up in stocks like DLF and Mahindra Lifespace which rose 3.17% and 3.66% respectively pulled the index to the top of the table. The other counter which saw huge buying interests was rate sensitive Auto which surged 1.53% on the back of jump in bellwether stocks like Maruti Suzuki up 3.58% and Apollo Tyres up 4.09% in the session. Meanwhile, shares of Healthcare companies like Opto Circuits and Fortis Healthcare jumped 3.46% and 2.23% respectively after Pranab Mukherjee rolled back the proposed 5% service tax on healthcare announced during the federal budget for 2011-12. While sugar stocks also surged on the buzz that Government will be allowing 200,000 tonne of sugar exports under unrestricted sales or the open general license (OGL). The benchmarks got a gap-up start and the indices gradually gained traction and conquered the crucial support levels of 5,400 and 18,000 and gyrated around those levels for most part of the trade. Some bouts of profit booking were witnessed in late trade when the frontline indices touched intra-day highs which dragged the bourses below crucial supports. However, some short covering in dying minutes helped the indices to snap the three day losing streak with gains of almost a percent. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 149.25 points or 0.84% to settle at 17,988.30 while the S&P CNX Nifty climbed by 49.10 points or 0.92% to end at 5,413.85.

US markets closed marginally lower on Tuesday to snap the three days winning streak, though there was not much on economy front, the earthquake-tsunami disaster in Japan and the crisis at the country's nuclear plants that followed sent stocks lower. Energy stocks rose higher for the second day as Crude oil prices, a major source of concern, rose $2 per barrel. Oil briefly topped $105 on concerns that conflicts in the Middle East could pinch oil supplies as demand begins to rise.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's monthly home-price index US home prices fell for a third straight month in January, adding to evidence that the housing market is weakening even though the economy is improving. Home prices fell 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January compared with December.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 17.90 points to close at 12,018.63. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell by 4.61 points, or 0.36 percent, to 1,293.77, while the Nasdaq composite index closed lower by 8.22 points, or 0.31 percent, to 2,683.87.

Crude prices rose to their highest level on Tuesday since Japan's devastating earthquake struck 11 days ago, as fighting in Libya and tensions in the Middle East renewed and Allied air strikes against targets in Libya stoked more concerns about supply disruptions. raders will receive an update on US oil and fuel supplies from the Department of Energy on Wednesday, oil inventories are expected to rise.

However, American Petroleum Institute reported a 970,000 barrel build in domestic crude stocks last week, far less than the expected. The API data showed a 7.9 million barrel drawdown in gasoline stockpiles and Distillate stocks fell 612,000 barrels.

Benchmark crude for April delivery settled up $1.67, or 1.6%, at $104 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. With the expiration of the April contract, the more heavily traded May contract rose $1.88, or 1.8%, to settle at $104.97 a barrel. In London, Brent crude for May settled up 74 cents, or 0.6%, at $115.70 a barrel on the ICE.

Domestic markets to see some recovery in early trade

The Indian markets witnessed a volatile trade in last session, though the close was flat but the markets never looked in confident condition. Today the start is likely to be good as the global cues are firm, though crude prices are still at the elevated levels and may continue putting pressure on the PSU oil marketing companies with government in no mood to free diesel prices soon. Commodity stocks are likely to make some recovery with report of Japan situation stabilizing. However there is not good news for the India Inc, an RBI analysis has said that rise in raw material cost and soaring salary bill eroded the profitability of India Inc during April-September period of the current financial year. Meanwhile the new banking licence hopefuls too may get disappointed as the new banking licences will be given only after the government vests more powers with the Reserve Bank of India to control the new entities. RBI had earlier brought out a discussion paper in August on licences to business houses and non-banking finance companies, and regulations to foster competition and has said it will look at the business plan for financial inclusion before granting a licence.

The US markets bounced back on Monday making a good start of the week some deals news along with ease in the Japanese crisis took the markets higher while the surge in crude prices led the energy stocks gain momentum. Most of the Asian markets have made a positive start and the Japanese markets after a day of break have surged by about 3 percent in the very early trade.

Back home, Indian benchmark indices staged a lackadaisical performance in Monday’s volatile trading session after remaining in a narrow band to finally settle flat and snap the second successive day below the crucial support levels of 5,400 and 18,000. The tepid close looked shoddier because of the fact that markets across the globe displayed energetic performance and rallied as Japan made progress in cooling nuclear reactors at a crippled plant, while energy stocks benefited from higher oil and commodity prices on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Libya and neighboring nations. Spiraling crude oil prices continued to play spoilsport for the local markets as intensifying air attack in Libya by the US and Allied forces and pro-democracy protests and clashes in Syria with government forces stoked the oil prices to uncomfortable levels. Massive selling by FIIs in the past couple of trading sessions along with risks of towering inflation and solidifying interest rates capped the upside chances for the frontline indices. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark ricocheted by over 100 points in the opening trade on emergence of buying in fundamentally strong shares at lower levels, driven by a firming trend in other Asian bourses. However, the frontline indices immediately erased all the opening session gains and drifted into the red to touch the low point of the day. Selective buying in some undervalued shares thereafter helped the index claw back in to the green territory in the late morning session. After gyrating in a narrow band and trading in the green for some time, the frontline indices slipped back into the red as investors took profits off the table in the dying hours. Eventually, bourses settled below the crucial support levels for the second straight day and settled with marginal losses of less than a quarter percent. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 39.76 points or 0.22% to settle at 17839.05 while the S&P CNX Nifty fell by 8.95 points or 0.17% to end at 5,364.75.

US markets soared on Monday and all the major indices were up by about one and a half percent on reports of that Japan's nuclear crisis was stabilizing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said the situation at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant appeared to be stabile it further said that containment at three of the plant’s six reactors was intact. Also there were some deals news that helped the markets gain strength, AT&T Inc. said it would buy rival T-Mobile USA for $39 billion, creating the largest US cellphone company, while Charles Schwab Corp. said it would buy online brokerage services provider OptionsXpress for $1 billion.

However, there was a disappointment from the economy front, the National Association of Realtors, an industry group said that sales of previously owned US homes fell unexpectedly sharply in February and prices fell to their lowest in nearly nine years. Sales fell 9.6 percent month over month to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, snapping three straight months of gains. The median home price dropped 5.2 percent in February from a year earlier to $156,100, the lowest since April 2002.

The Dow Jones industrial average surged by 178.01 points, or 1.50 percent, to 12,036.53. The S&P 500 index gained 19.18 points, or 1.50 percent, to 1,298.38, while the Nasdaq composite rose by 48.42 points, or 1.83 percent, to 2,692.09.

Crude prices once again resumed their gaining mood and ended up more than 1 percent on Monday as UN mandated air strikes in Libya and growing unrest in the Middle East sparked more worries about supply disruptions. Western forces launched a second wave of air strikes on Libya. Spreading unrest in the Middle East supported prices, but uncertainty about demand from the world’s No. 3 consumer Japan capped gains.

Meanwhile, Japan will allow the release of an additional 22 days worth of crude oil from privately held reserve aimed to ease energy shortages in northern Japan, which was devastated by a massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11.

Benchmark crude for April delivery settled at $102.33 a barrel, gaining $1.26, or 1.25 percent, after trading in a range of $101.66 to $103.35 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery settled up by $1.03 or 0.9 percent at $114.96 a barrel on the ICE.

Markets likely to get a positive start on supportive global cues

The Indian markets once again suffered sharp cuts on Friday; investors were still to overcome from the pressure of rate hike by RBI and the rise in crude prices too weighed on the sentiments. Today the start is likely to be positive as the global cues are supportive, however the crude prices are still moving higher after the Gaddafi violated cease fire and air bombardment from American, French and British forces took place to protect Libyan civilians from government troops. On the domestic front Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that the Reserve Bank of India's move to hike key policy rates by 25 basis points would help curb inflationary pressure. On the same time there is a bad news for the oil marketing companies as the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) has said that the government would wait for inflationary pressure to calm down before freeing the diesel prices. However the PMEAC has exuded confidence that inflation will decline to below 6 per cent in the first few months of the next fiscal, even as the Reserve Bank revised upwards its March-end inflation projection. The PMEAC Chairman C Rangarajan also said that RBI would halt increase in key policy rates once the headline inflation comes down to around 6 per cent.

The US markets managed to close in green on Friday as the Libyan tension eased a bit, also the G7 nations pledge to support Japanese currency from moving higher in the time of crisis helping the markets closed higher. Most of the Asian markets have made a green start and major indices are trading higher by half to one percent.

Back home, Indian benchmarks once again settled in the red zone on the last trading day of the week as hefty profit booking by funds and retail investors continued for the second straight day after the RBI hiked its key policy rates to curb inflation on Thursday. Sentiments remained subdued as investors feared that more rate hikes are on cards as RBI’s tone was hawkish as it battles spiraling inflationary pressures which threaten to derail the robust growth of Indian economy. The gloomy reports from the political front too did no good to the local sentiments as the opposition demanded resignation of Indian Prime Minister following a wikileaks cable showing bribes had been given by the ruling UPA government members for votes during a no confidence motion after an Indo-US nuclear treaty. While in the global space, sanguine cues from the Asian and European markets went largely unnoticed as investors factored in the spike in international crude oil prices which surged in the session after a vote by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) authorizing the imposition of a no-fly zone over the Libya. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, breached the crucial 5,400 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, Sensex infringed the psychological 18,000 mark after shaving off over two hundred fifty points. The broader markets traded with some resilience though and finished with relatively smaller losses thereby outshining their larger peers. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark ricocheted by around 100 points in the opening trade, with finance and other sector stocks rising on the back of supportive cues from overnight US markets which surged around one and half a percent on a slew of good economic reports that helped to put aside the fear of Japanese crisis. However, the frontline indices immediately erased all the opening gains and treaded on a southbound journey thereafter, since unpleasant reports related to the index heavyweight RIL’s lower than estimated gas production from its KG Basin block hit headlines. Sentiments were also dampened after the opposition raised questions on Congress, which is already burdened by corruption charges, culpability after wikileaks cables revelation. The bourses touched intraday lows in the dying hours of session as they infringed crucial support levels to eventually settle with losses of around one and half a percent. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 271.06 points or 1.49% to settle at 17878.81 while the S&P CNX Nifty fell by 72.95 points or 1.34% to end at 5373.70.

Domestic markets likely to make positive start on good global cues

The Indian markets suffered sharp decline in previous session, the global cues weighed on the sentiments though there was a credit policy announcement too and the RBI on expected lines announced 25 basis point hike in key policy rates but the investors concentrated mainly on the global cues. Today the start is likely to be good as the global cues are indicating for a positive start. Rate sensitive too may stabilize as the rate hike was already discounted. Domestic pharma companies are likely to get a boost with the decision of National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) increasing prices of 62 drugs, which are mainly based on indigenously manufactured insulin. The majority of the drugs, whose prices have been increased, are used in treatment of diabetes and tuberclosis. The companies which would be affected by the price revision of drugs include Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Novartis, Sanofi Aventis, GSK, Biocon, Wockhardt, Lupin and Cipla. NPPA said that raw material cost and revision in the norms of conversion cost, packing charges and packaging materials as notified on December 16, 2010 necessitated the move.

However the rising international crude prices are likely to put pressure on the local PSU oil marketing companies and the markets too. The conflict in Libya and diplomatic efforts to forge a response has once again raised the crude prices.

The US markets made a good pullback effort on Thursday and all the major indices gained by 1-1.5 percent, it was the slew of good economic reports that helped the markets recover from steep fall of last two session and to put aside the fear of Japanese crisis. The Asian markets have made a good start and most of the indices are trading higher with Japanese Nikkei gaining around 2 percent as G7 industrial nations agreed on Friday to jointly intervene in the currency market to stem a sharp yen rise.

Back home, stock markets in India carried forward this week’s trend of closing in the negative territory after every positive close as they settled in the red after taking cuts of around a percent a day after garnering about a percentage points. Although RBI’s eighth hike in benchmark interest rates since March 2010 by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, sentiments however went awry as marketmen feared that escalating domestic inflation would eat in to the overall growth of Indian economy. The RBI also hiked the forecast of inflation for the current fiscal year to around 8% from its previous estimate of 7% as it expected that economic growth will be impacted from surging global commodity prices, especially crude oil prices. While weakness in the Asian markets amid concerns of aggravating nuclear crisis in Japan too undermined local sentiments. The jump of around one and half a percent in crude oil prices also took sheen off the local bourses as traders shrugged the optimistic cues from the European counterparts. Meanwhile, marginal decline in food inflation to a three-and-a-half-month low of 9.42% for the week ended March 5 failed to enthuse the investor sentiment. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, managed to hold on to the crucial 5,450 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, Sensex closed with a two hundred point cut around the psychological 18,150 mark. The broader markets traded with some resilience and finished with moderate losses thereby outperforming their larger peers by quite a margin. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a gap down start as investors squared off positions tracking discouraging leads from the overnight US markets coupled with renewed fears that a partial meltdown may have occurred at a nuclear plant in Japan which undermined sentiments significantly. The markets gained some traction from thereon till the reports of marginal fall in inflation and hike in key policy rates hit the street. Thereafter, investors opted to take profits off the table from rate sensitive sectors like Banks, Auto and Realty as RBI’s raising of March-end inflation estimate to 8% from 7% projected earlier, had an adverse impact on the domestic sentiments. The bourses after touching intraday lows in the dying hours pared some portion of decline to eventually settle with losses of over a percent. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 208.82 points or 1.14% to settle at 18149.87 while the S&P CNX Nifty fell by 64.50 points or 1.17% to end at 5,446.65.

The US markets pulled back and closed higher on Thursday on the back of good economic reports helping investors put aside fears over Japan’s nuclear crisis. The Labor Department reported that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell more than economists expected last week. Ongoing claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2008. In other economic reports, the survey from the Federal Reserve's Philadelphia branch showed new orders soared, while a gauge of manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region jumped in February to the highest point since January 1984.

The Labor Department in separate report showed consumer prices edged higher in February. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent last month. Core prices, which exclude food and fuel costs, edged higher by 0.2 percent, the same as the previous month.

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 161.29 points, or 1.39 percent, to 11,774.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 16.84 points, or 1.34 percent, at 1,273.72, while the Nasdaq rose by 19.23 points, or 0.73 percent, at 2,636.05.

Crude prices surged on Thursday by about 4 percent edging back above $100 a barrel mark on escalating tensions between Libya and governments working on a response at the United Nations and on continuing unrest in the Middle East and Bahrain that kept investors worried about potential supply disruptions. The trading volume remained low and the expiration of the April contract added some volatility to the prices.

The United Nations Security Council authorized military strikes on Libya, and US and European officials said last night that air attacks against Col. Moammar Gadhafi's forces were possible 'within hours'.

Benchmark crude for April rose $3.40 to expire at $101.38 a barrel, after trading in a range from $96.60 to $101.99 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, ICE Brent crude for May rose $4.30, or 3.89 percent, to settle at $114.90 a barrel on the ICE.