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Monday, June 19, 2023

Derivatives update

*Derivatives update*

Good morning !! Derivatives update for Monday, 19th June 2023.

India VIX was down by 2.17% from 11.08 to 10.84 levels. Volatility sunk lower and supported the bulls at record high index levels.   

Nifty *Put/Call Ratio* (OI) increased from 1.13 to 1.29 level. 

On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 19000 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18800 strike. Call writing is seen at 19100 then 19000 strike while Put writing is seen at 18800 then 18700 strike.

*Option data suggests a shift in broader trading range in between 18550 to 19000 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18700 to 18900 zones.*

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 44000 then 43500 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 44000 then 45500 strike. We have seen Call writing at 45500 with unwinding at 43600 and Put writing is witnessed at 43700 strike.

Bank Nifty Put Call Ratio increased from 0.66 to 0.99. Implied volatility fell from 13.9 to 12.2 levels.

Bank Nifty (CMP 43,938.15)
Data setup for Bank Nifty suggests a trading range in between *43500/43750 to 44144/44250 zones.*

Looking ahead at the FII’s derivatives activity, there was long built up in index futures, call buying & out selling in index options and long built up in stock futures.

In the cash market, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 795 crores while DII’s were net buyers worth 681 crores. FIIs Index Long Short Ratio increased to 55.13%.

Derivatives data and price set up suggests, Nifty has to hold above 18777 zones to witness an up move towards 18888 and 19000 zones while on the downside support exists at 18710 and 18676 zones.

Bank Nifty has to hold above 43750 zones for a bounce towards 44144 then 44250 levels while on the downside support is seen at 43750 then 43500 zones.

Thank you. Have a great trading day and week ahead..!!

Derivatives update

*Derivatives update*

Good morning !! Derivatives update for Monday, 19th June 2023.

India VIX was down by 2.17% from 11.08 to 10.84 levels. Volatility sunk lower and supported the bulls at record high index levels.   

Nifty *Put/Call Ratio* (OI) increased from 1.13 to 1.29 level. 

On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 19000 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18800 strike. Call writing is seen at 19100 then 19000 strike while Put writing is seen at 18800 then 18700 strike.

*Option data suggests a shift in broader trading range in between 18550 to 19000 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18700 to 18900 zones.*

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 44000 then 43500 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 44000 then 45500 strike. We have seen Call writing at 45500 with unwinding at 43600 and Put writing is witnessed at 43700 strike.

Bank Nifty Put Call Ratio increased from 0.66 to 0.99. Implied volatility fell from 13.9 to 12.2 levels.

Bank Nifty (CMP 43,938.15)
Data setup for Bank Nifty suggests a trading range in between *43500/43750 to 44144/44250 zones.*

Looking ahead at the FII’s derivatives activity, there was long built up in index futures, call buying & out selling in index options and long built up in stock futures.

In the cash market, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 795 crores while DII’s were net buyers worth 681 crores. FIIs Index Long Short Ratio increased to 55.13%.

Derivatives data and price set up suggests, Nifty has to hold above 18777 zones to witness an up move towards 18888 and 19000 zones while on the downside support exists at 18710 and 18676 zones.

Bank Nifty has to hold above 43750 zones for a bounce towards 44144 then 44250 levels while on the downside support is seen at 43750 then 43500 zones.

Thank you. Have a great trading day and week ahead..!!

News and Impact

News and Impact
 
 
·      Expects market to open on a flat note but intra-day may cross record high level today back of  strong micro data along with persistent FIIs buying interest and rally in the global markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ended the week 4% higher, logged its longest weekly winning streak since March 2019. Previous day, both Sensex and Nifty close on a record high and just 20 points from the lifetime high and expectation of new all time high level today. Sentiments remain robust due to CPI data falling to 25-month low, strong direct tax of above 11% to in April-June, nearly 8-year low WPI data, USDINR fall to 1-month low to below 82 and hope of good monsoon will boost the market sentiment. Foreign institutions net bought Rs 16,406 crore worth of equities in June. They have been net buyers of Rs 45,665 crore worth of Indian equities so far in 2023. US market on Friday marginally decline due to profit booking and Asian markets open on a mixed bag. SGX Nifty is flat to negative. Expects range bound market today on account of US market will be shut today. Expects stocks specific action in the market and any decline will be good buying opportunity. Expects, rally to continue on defense stocks on ahead of the Indian PM visit in US for defense collaboration this week. Metal stocks may be positive on hope of China to stimulus announcement. FMCG stocks may be positive on hope of good monsoon to improve rural demand and the government cut base import taxes on refined soybean and sunflower oils. Moreover, rally may continue on realestate, mid and small cap stocks. Watch on HDFC Bank – its ADR gained by 2.5% on Friday
 
·      US Market   – U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday on account of profit booking as investors weighed the path of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and the sustainability of the recent bull market. Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5% while Dow Jones declined marginally by 0.3%. However, Nasdaq logged its longest weekly winning streak since March 2019. Wall Street appeared to cheer signs that the Fed's tightening cycle has helped to ease price pressures, while two Fed officials warned that the central bank may have to raise rates further to tame inflation.
 
·      Global market summary –US Dollar Index fell to 2-month low at 102. The Nasdaq logged its longest weekly winning streak since March 2019.
 
·      Asian Market –Asian equities are witnessing mixed bag. US equity futures reversed earlier gains and the offshore yuan weakened as investors parsed news on signs of improving ties between Washington and Beijing and hopes for further stimulus in China to boost its flagging recovery.
 
·      European Market - European shares rose on Friday, posting their biggest weekly advance since April, buoyed by gains in the luxury goods and utilities sectors. France Index gained over 1% while Germany Index advance 0.50%
 
·      Oil –  Brent Crude advance 2% to above $76/bbl. The oil rig count in the US decreased by 4 this week, according to the latest data released by oilfield services company Baker Hughes on Friday.
 
·      Gold –Gold slipped marginally to $1956/ounce after hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
 
·      Previous Day market Update-  Equity benchmark Sensex and Nifty ended at an all-time high on a closing basis on account of relentless buying interest across the sectors and a rally in the global markets along with strong domestic data and FIIs inflow. Both Sensex and Nifty are just a few points away from a record high today. Nifty touched an intra-day high of 18865 while the all-time high was 18887. On the domestic front, May CPI data fell to 25-month low and multi years low WPI data which have a positive sentiment in the market. Moreover, FIIs were net buyers of over Rs5000cr this week, USDINR fell to a 1-month low to below 82, and the hope of a good monsoon and stable oil prices have positive sentiment in the market. Sensex surged 467 points or 0.7% to close at 63385 while touching a high of 63520 (all-time 63583). Nifty advance 138 points or 0.7% to close at Rs18826 while touching an intra-day high of 18865. Banking, defense, FMCG, cement, and insurance stocks were major gainers today. Both Mid-cap and Small-cap Index gained 1% each. Both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers Rs795cr while DIIs Rs681cr respectively.
 
·      Nifty Technical Levels – Nifty formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and has been making higher highs from the last four sessions. It formed a Bullish candle on weekly frame and has been making higher highs from the last twelve weeks. Now it has to hold above 18777 zones to witness an up move towards 18888 and 19000 zones while on the downside support exists at 18710 and 18676 zones
 
·      Bank Nifty Technical Levels – formed a Bullish candle on daily scale as buying was seen in heavyweights and ended with decent gains of 500 points. On weekly scale it formed a small bodied candle with long shadow as buying is visible at lower zones but negated the formation of highs lows after thirteen weeks. Now it has to hold above 43750 zones for a bounce towards 44144 then 44250 levels while on the downside support is seen at 43750 then 43500 zones.
 
·      Actionable BUY – Titan, HAL, Rites, IRCTC, HDFC Bank, Tata Steel
 
·      Brokers Radar – HSBC TGT on Mahindra Finance at 360, Manappuram Finance TGT by Morgan Stanley at 160, Britannia TGT by Nomura at 5425. Infosys – Citi TGT at 1395 AND Macquarie TGT at 1310. HCL Tech Macquarie TGT 1520. Wipro TGT by Citi at 335. Wipro TGT by Macquarie at 440.
 
·      Events – SBI AGM, Can Fin Home board meeting for fund raising, Mahindra CIE will change it new name, SAT verdict on Zee Entertainment, Global Surfactant end of promoters lock in period.  Sovergren Gold issue open today at Rs5926 per gram.
 
·      Corporate Action  - Ex-dividend - LG Balkrishnan Rs16, Ashirbad Capita Bonus 1:2, Vintage Coffee Right issue
 
·      Global Data – NAHB Housing Market Index (US), Housing Price Index (UK)
 
·      Market Summary – State Bank of India, HDFC to gain from Nifty Bank index readjustment, Tata Steel sets FY24 capex at Rs 16,000 crore, Rites wins overseas order , Kotak Mahindra Plans to Raise Rs7k Via Bond Sale in 2023-24, USFDA completes inspection at Dr Reddy's Lab and oratories Ltd's Bollaram API unit and Zero observation, ABB wins order from Kanpur Metro
 
·      IRCTC – Company has announced that around 14.5 lakh reserved tickets are booked on daily basis in Indian Railways, out of which 81% are e-tickets, booked through IRCTC.
 
·      Tata Steel -  Company is planning a consolidated capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 16,000 crore for its domestic and global operations during the current financial year, according to its top management.
 
·      Kotak Mahindra – Company’s board approved raising as much as 70 billion rupees ($854 million) selling bonds in one or more tranches during the financial year to March 2024 - positive
 
·      Paras Defence – Company secured a contract worth about Rs53cr from the Indian defense ministry for the supply of optical periscopes.- positive
·      PVR – Company collected Rs240cr in the last two days on new movie Adipurush. – positive
 
·      HDFC – Company has sought RBI permission to classify its outstanding bonds with a tenure of more than seven years as infrastructure bonds. The mortgage financier is awaiting RBI's decision on this even as it is preparing to complete the merger process by the end of this month, a person aware of the matter said. – We are positive on the stock.
 
·      MosChip Technologies - A semiconductor and system design services and IP company, announced today that Dr. Naveed Ahmed Sherwani has been appointed as Non-Executive Director of the Company.- Positive
 
·      State Bank of India, HDFC to gain from Nifty Bank index readjustment – (media report)—SBI and HDFC will see maximum inflows from passive trackers on account of the quarterly rebalancing exercise of the Nifty Bank Index. IndusInd Bank and AU Small Finance Bank could see maximum outflows. The rejig of the Nifty CPSE Index will result in inflows in ONGC, NTPC, and Coal India and maximum outflows in Bharat Electronics, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics
 
·      Skipper Limited - One of the world's leading manufacturers for Power Transmission & Distribution manufacturer of Telecom and Railway structures wins fresh orders worth Rs.1135 Crores from Domestic & International Market – positive
 
·      ABB - The Kanpur Metro has deployed ABB India's Electrification solutions for safe, reliable and quality power distribution. ABB India has been contributing to Indian Metro systems by proving electrification solutions to 13 metro rail projects across India. – positive
 
·      Dr Reddy - The USFDA completed a GMP inspection at Dr. Reddy's Lab's API manufacturing facility in Bollaram, Hyderabad (CTO-3). The inspection was conducted from June 12, 2023 to June 16, 2023. The inspection closed with zero observations.- positive
 
·      Adani Enterprises - The Adani Group owned Mumbai International Airport has registered a 23% increase in the total passenger in May.  The Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport saw a footfall of 43.44 lakh passengers in May. With that, the passengers hadled by one of the busiest airports in the country has risen higher than pre-Covid levels.
 
·      Nexus Select Trust - Company has successfully raised Rs. 1,000 crores of coupon-bearing Non-Convertible Debentures ("NCDs") – positive
 
·      Gufic Biosciences – Company received approval from National Medical Products Administration (NMPA), China for our product PRILOCAINE (API) which is an amide-type local anaesthetic of fast onset and intermediate duration of action. This approval shall help commercialization of the said product in China and explore Chinese market. – positive
 
·      Ram Ratna Wires- Company announced the setting up of new manufacturing facility for expansion its plant at Salarpur, Bhiwadi, Distt - Alwar, Rajasthan – positive
 
·      Wipro – Company announced the launch of the Wipro Industry Innovation Experience for Energy and Utilities, featuring a new suite of integrated digital solutions built on Microsoft Cloud.- positive
 
·      Ashok Leyland, Aidrivers develop India’s first autonomous electric terminal - Ashok Leyland and Aidrivers, the global specialist in AI- enabled autonomous solutions are partnering to produce autonomous electric terminal trucks to address the net zero emissions needs of the port industry.- positive
 
·      Kalpataru Projects - Company has acquired the rights to redevelop a housing society in the Borivali suburb of Mumbai, and is planning to develop an over seven lakh sq. ft. residential project with an investment of around Rs 700 crore.- positive.
 
·      NLC India – Company announced the  incorporation of a subsidiary company to undertake its existing  renewable energy projects. NLC India Renewables (NIRL) was incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary - positive
 
·      Adani Green – Rating agency Fitch Affirms Adani Green Energy Restricted Group 2's Notes at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
 
·      TCS – Company and U.S. insurer Transamerica have agreed to terminate the 10-year, $2-billion outsourcing deal after five-and-a-half years. Transamerica plans to cut its dependence on third-party IT services firms such as TCS, electing to do much of the tech work itself, according to an executive familiar with the development. – Not yet major impact ,
 
·      Adani Power - Adani Electricity Mumbai has received over 3,000 applications from the customers of rival Tata Power for migration in the last two months after state regulator's multi-year tariff order brought down rates for the Adani Group company. There has been migration requests for close to 350 million units of power from around 3,000 applicants across the commercial, industrial as well as well as residential household customers of Tata Power in Mumbai –  We are long term positive on Tata Power while marginally positive on Adani Power
 
·      PDS Ltd – PDS Lifestyle has proposed to buy 100% stake in U.K.-based clothing brand New Lobster for Rs 150.51 crore - Positive
 
·      DMR Hydroengineering - Company has received a Letter of Acceptance for Consultancy Services for design and construction of Treated Water Tunnel and allied works in Dist. Raigad, subject to the approval of CIDCO with order value Rs125cr – positive
 
·      Natco Pharma- Company has announced final approval for its ANDA for Tipiracil Hydrochloride and Trifluridine Tablets from the USFDA. Natco believes it is one of the First-to-File for the product and may be eligible for a 180-day exclusivity at the time of launch. Lonsurf® is indicated primarily for the treatment of colorectal cancer. As per IQVIA data, Lonsurf® had generated annual sales of $211 million in USA during the twelve months ending December 2022. – positive
 
·      Rites – Company has signed a Rs 665 crore contract with National Railways of Zimbabwe for supply of 3000 diesel electric locomotives and high sided open wagons. – positive
 
·      DroneAcharya Aerial Innovations – Company has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL) which is one of the top universities based out of Bangkok, Thailand. – positive
 
·      Indsil Hydro Power – Company has entered into a transaction with a buyer for sale of the 12 MW power plant of the Company situated at Raipur, Chhattisgarh for an aggregate consideration of Rs. 11.40 Crores – Positive
 
·      Naapbooks Ltd – Company has entered into MOU with the MSME Promotion Council, New Delhi to Provide digitization and digitalization services to MSMEs and to make MSMEs digitally empowered and motivate them to adopt digital tools, applications and technologies in their production & business processes. – Positive
 
·      Amines and Plasticizers – Company has received all the required statutory clearances and the Plant at Turbhe, Navi Mumbai will be fully operational effective today. – positive
 
 

Pre-Market Derivatives and Technical Set-up

*Pre-Market Derivatives and Technical Set-up*

🔎 *Nifty* 
Index opened positive and kept moving in the northward direction throughout the day and touched intraday high of 18864 zones, merely a few points away from its life time high levels. Bulls were in complete dominance in the second half of the session and gave the highest ever closing with gains of around 140 points. It formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and has been making higher highs from the last four sessions. It formed a Bullish candle on weekly frame and has been making higher highs from the last twelve weeks

📊 Now it has to hold above 18777 zones to witness an up move towards 18888 and 19000 zones while on the downside support exists at 18710 and 18676 zones

🎢 India VIX was down by 2.17% from 11.08 to 10.84 levels. Volatility sunk lower and supported the bulls at record high index levels
 
🧮 On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 19000 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18800 strike. Call writing is seen at 19100 then 19000 strike while Put writing is seen at 18800 then 18700 strike. Option data suggests a shift in broader trading range in between 18550 to 19000 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18700 to 18900 zones

🔎 *Bank Nifty*
Index opened on a positive note near 43600 zones but remained consolidative in a narrow range of 150 points between 43650 to 43800 in the first half of the session. However good momentum was seen in the last hour of the session as swift movement of 300 points was seen towards 44100 zones. It formed a Bullish candle on daily scale as buying was seen in heavyweights and ended with decent gains of 500 points. On weekly scale it formed a small bodied candle with long shadow as buying is visible at lower zones but negated the formation of highs lows after thirteen weeks

📊 Now it has to hold above 43750 zones for a bounce towards 44144 then 44250 levels while on the downside support is seen at 43750 then 43500 zones

🔎 *Fin Nifty*
Index opened gap up and witnessed buying interest right from the initial tick and continued the momentum throughout the entire trading session. It formed a strong bullish candle on daily frame and Doji on weekly frame indicating that buying is visible at lower levels

📊 Now till it holds above 19300 levels momentum can extend towards 19600 then previous life time high of 19778 zones while on the downside supports are placed at 19300 then 19200 zones

*Stocks* 
🚀 Bullish setup in HDFC Life, Ashokley, Exide, ICICI Pru, M&MFin, HAL, IRCTC, Lichsgfin, BHEL, SBI Life, IDFC First Bank, BEL, Ind Hotel, Naukri, Bajaj Finserv, IDFC, Cholafin, Trent, Bharatforg, Titan, Muthootfin, ITC, Mcdowell, and Balkrishna Ind 

🐻 Bearish setup in Bajaj Auto, Guj Gas, TCS and NMDC

Market Indication

Market Indication:
Global: FLAT to POSITIVE

NIFTY: FLAT to POSITIVE

BANKNIFTY: FLAT to POSITIVE

BULK Deals: IIFL Finance, IKIO Lighting, Piramal Pharma etc.

Stocks In F&O Ban Period: Delta Corp, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indian Energy Exchange, India Cements, L&T Finance Holdings, Manappuram Finance, Tata Chemicals, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises

Results Today: Nil

SGX NIFTY: (Positive)

18916 +18.00 +0.10%

Saturday, June 17, 2023

Buy TATA steel

Buy TATA steel
For short term
Traget 140,150++

EX BONUS DATES

*EX BONUS DATES*
COMPANY RATIO XB DATE
*BLUE STAR 1:1 20-06-2023*
*IndiaMart 1:1 21-06-2023*
*Gulshan Poly 1:5 21-06-2023*  
*Sadhna Nitro 2:9 27-06-2023*
*APTECH 2:5 06-07-2023* 
*ROTO PUMPS 1:1 07-07-2023*

IPOs in Pipeline

🚨 *IPOs in Pipeline* 🚨

1. HMA Agro Industries Limited (Dates Confirmed)
2. IdeaForge Technology Limited
3. PKH Ventures 
4. Cyient DLM
5. Deltatech Gaming 

*IPO Season 🌧️ is Back !!!*

_*Stay Tuned For All IPO Updates*_ 💰

5 Companies Files DRHP with SEBI

*5 Companies Files DRHP with SEBI for IPO this Month* 🗓️

📍Valiant Laboratories IPO
📍ASK Automotive IPO
📍Western Carriers IPO
📍Mukka Proteins IPO
📍RBZ Jewellers IPO

Economic Calendar Today

*Economic Calendar, Monday, June 12th 2023*

🇯🇵 *Japan* : Machine Tool Orders (YoY)

🇨🇳 *China* : New Loans, Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY), Chinese Total Social Financing, M2 Money Stock (YoY)

🇮🇳 *India* : Cumulative Industrial Production (Apr), CPI (YoY) (May), Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Apr), Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)

🇺🇸 *USA* : Consumer Inflation Expectations, 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction, 3-Year Note Auction, 10-Year Note Auction, Federal Budget Balance (May)

Friday, June 16, 2023

GoldBond

Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) scheme - Series I will be open between June 19-23. Series II will be open between Sept 11-15.

Incredible growth! Electric vehicles

Incredible growth! Electric vehicles (EVs) now account for 6.4% of total vehicle registrations in India! 💪

2023*: 6.4%
2022: 4.6%
2021: 1.8%
2020: 0.71%
2019: 0.73%
2018: 0.5%

*Up to June 15
(Vahan Registration; RBI)

BUY ENDURANCE

BUY ENDURANCE @ 1575-1600, SL 1555, TGT 1688, 1750, 1857

Pre-Market Derivatives and Technical Set-up

*Pre-Market Derivatives and Technical Set-up*

🔎 *Nifty* 
Index opened positive but failed to cross and hold above 18777-18800 zones and drifted lower throughout the day. It breached its previous day’s low and touched intraday low of 18669 in the last hour to close with losses of around 70 points. Index remained in overall pressure and witnessed profit booking decline. It formed a Bearish candle on daily scale but has been making higher highs from the last three sessions

📊 Now it has to hold above 18676 zones to witness an up move towards 18777 and 18888 zones while on the downside support exists at 18636 and 18550 zones

🎢 India VIX was down by 0.72% from 11.16 to 11.08 levels. Volatility was slightly down and is at overall lower levels causing premiums to squeeze
 
🧮 On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 18700 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18600 strike. Call writing is seen at 18700 then 18800 strike while Put writing is seen at 18700 then 18500 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 18450 to 18900 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18600 to 18800 zones

🔎 *Bank Nifty*
Index opened on a flattish note and failed to hold above 44044 marks and gradually drifted by more than 500 points towards 43400 zones. It finally broke its crucial 20DEMA on the daily scale and gave a range breakdown after fourteen sessions. It formed a Big Bearish candle on daily scale as sustained selling pressure was seen throughout the day as private Banks remained under pressure

📊 Now till it holds below 43750 zones weakness could be seen towards 43250 then 43000 levels while on the upside hurdle is placed at 43750 then 44000 levels

🔎 *Fin Nifty*
Index opened flattish and witnessed sustained selling pressure throughout the trading session. It gave a range breakdown of the last twelve trading sessions and closed below its crucial 20DEMA which implies pause in the current up move. It formed a Bearish Marubozu candle on daily frame which suggests dominance by bears. 

📊 Now till Fin Nifty holds below 19350 levels weakness could be seen towards 19100 then 18980 zones while on the upside hurdle is seen at 19372 then 19500 levels

*Stocks* 
🚀 Bullish setup in L&TFH, Godrejprop, Apollo Hospital, IDFC First Bank, Drreddy, Cipla, Lupin, Dabur, BPCL, Nestleind, ITC, M&M, Bata India and Asian Paint

🐻 Bearish setup in ZEEL, RBL Bank, Heromotoco, PNB, Can Bank, Bandhan Bank, Tatachem, Bank Baroda, Wipro, Federal Bank, SBIN, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank, Eicher Motor and HDFC

From Advisory Desk 16th June 2023

From Advisory Desk 16th June 2023
 
Market Outlook: US equities had another strong day yesterday, fueled by robust economic data, resulting in all three major benchmark indices up by over 1%, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices closing at near 14-month highs. The environment of slowing inflation and a resilient economy creates the perfect conditions for a rally in equity markets, which is happening around the world, especially in Indian and US markets. In contrast, the ECB raised interest rates to a 22-year high and indicated more to come on account of higher inflation pressure. Asian markets have started on a mixed note, while the SGX Nifty is indicating a positive opening. Yesterday, our market witnessed a profit booking correction, especially in financial stocks, on account of weak global cues. However, the overall direction of the market is still positive and we expect the uptrend momentum to continue with intermittent minor declines.
 
Actionable: Buy IDFC First Bank, Tata Steel, Ashok Leyland.
 
IPO listing: IKIO Lighting shares to start trading in exchanges today after oversubscribed by 66 times. Grey Market is indicating 30-35% premium.
 
Global market:
DOW:  + 428
SGX NIFTY:   + 40   (prev. close 18760)
NIFTY 50 : 18688
Sensex : 62917
 
Institution:
FII:                +   3086     Cr
DII:                -    298       Cr

NSE:
Advances:  1669  / Declines:  1870

Currency:
Dollar: $ 82.18
Dollar Index: 102.14
 
Commodity:
Gold: $ 1970  per ounce
Crude: $ 75.45  per barrel
 
Bonds:
10 year US bond rate: 3.74
10 year Indian Bond rate: 7.04

Derivative:
PCR: 0.93
VIX:  11.08

Updates:
 
TCS – As per reports, TCS's $2 billion, 10-year deal with the American arm of Dutch insurer Aegon NV has been scrapped five-and-a-half years after Transamerica Life Insurance Co. selected TCS. Transamerica plans to cut its dependence on third-party IT services firms such as TCS.

Reliance Industries - As per reports, Reliance Industries is in talks with lenders for a foreign-currency loan of up to $2 billion to fuel the ongoing expansion of its oil-to-telecoms business.
 
Titagrah Wagons/Ramkrishna Forgings - A consortium between Ramkrishna Forgings Limited and Titagarh Rail Systems Limited were awarded a contract worth Rs 12,226.5 crore under AatmaNirbhar Bharat Initiative by Ministry of Railways. They were lowest bidder earlier.
 
BHEL - Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles to jointly develop and deploy type-IV cylinders (Hydrogen/CNG) in the commercial vehicle segment alert.  
 
Torrent Pharma - U.S. FDA has issued an Establishment Inspection Report after inspecting the drugmaker’s oral-oncology manufacturing facility at Bileshwarpura in Gujarat.
 
Natco Pharma - USFDA has issued an Establishment Inspection Report after inspecting its manufacturing facility at Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh from Jan 30 to Feb 3.
 
The FTSE index rebalancing is taking place today around 3 PM in which India is likely to receive net inflows of nearly $250 million to $270 million. Medanta is likely to see inflows of $8.1 million, Piramal Pharma can see inflows of $11.1 million.
 
Securities in ban: BHEL, DELTACORP, IBULHSGFIN, IEX, INDIACEM, L&TFH, MANAPPURAM FINANCE, TATACHEM, ZEEL.
 
Derivative View: On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 18700 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18600 strike. Option data suggests an immediate trading range in between 18600 to 18800 zones.

News and Impact

News and Impact
 
 
·      Expects market to open on a positive note on account of favorable global markets. US market closed to 14-month high, strong FIIs buying interest and impressive domestic economy data may have  positive impact in the market. A six-day advance for the US S&P 500 sent the gauge above 4,400 amid speculation the Federal Reserve will have to end its tightening cycle sooner rather. Dow Jones and Nasdaq composite climbed up over 1% after the US Retail sales data announced better than expectation on Month of Month basis but poor jobless data indicating to pause in interest rate hike. As a result, US bond yield declined and Dollar Index fell to 2-month low to below 103 level as investors digested US Fed rate hike and hawkish commentary including the ECB lifting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point , as was expected. Asian markets witnessed mixed bag while Japan Index declined ahead of Bank of Japan interest rate decision to be announce today. However, China index gained on hope of China government to announce stimulus. SGX Nifty is up quarter percent while yesterday declined nearly half percent on account of profit booking. US Future marginally decline due to quarterly expiry and rebalancing today while market will be shut on holiday.  Expects positive for metal stocks on account of increased base metal price on LME and China stimulus to improve global demand. Pharma stocks may rally continue due to US FDA approval and clean chit by USFDA approval Indian pharma companies. IKIO listing and FTSE rebalancing will be in focus today.
 
·      US Market   – US Market witnessed smart rally yesterday. Dow Jones surged over 1% to close 6-month high while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advance 1% to close at their highest in 14 months, as investors cheered economic data that fueled bets that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike campaign. US Retail sales data announced better than expectation on Month of Month basis but poor jobless data indicating may pause in rate hike.
 
·      Global market summary – U.S. stocks hit fresh 14-month highs, US Dollar Index fell to 2-month low to below 103. Both US 10-Year and 2-year Yield marginally. ECB Raises Main Refinancing Rate By 25BPS to 4.00%; Estimates. 4.00% - The ECB lifted rates Thursday by another quarter-point, with President Christine Lagarde describing a further hike in July as “very likely.”
 
·      Asian Market –Asian equities are witnessing mixed bag on expectation of more stimulus from China and overnight rally in the US market. Taiwan, Hong Kong Index, South Korea Index gained nearly half percent each. Japan Index slipped 0.5% ahead of Japan central bank policy decision to be release today.
 
·      European Market - European stocks closed with losses on Thursday, except for the UK exchange, after the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate hike decision. Germany Index slipped over half percent while UK Index managed to ended positive territory. The eurozone's benchmark rate is at its highest since May 2001 after the European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, dampening sentiment in the region's stock markets.
 
·      Oil –  Brent Crude advance 2% to above $75/bbl as a weaker dollar and expectations for more stimulus in China outweighed concerns over higher interest rates in the US and Europe.
 
·      Gold –.Gold rebounded after comments from the European Central Bank president that another interest-rate hike is likely in July. The dollar and Treasury yields pushed lower in response, helping lift bullion. Gold gained 1% to $1956/ounce.
 
·      Previous Day market Update-  Equity benchmark index snapped it's 3-day winning streak and closed in red after the US Fed left rates unchanged as anticipated, but hinted at the possibility of more hikes later this year. Global markets also declined today as investors turned cautious on Fed signal that two rate hikes were possible by the end of the year. Interest sensitive sectors like banks, auto and realty stocks were major losers today while defensive sectors like healthcare and FMCG stocks recorded smart gain. Major European markets were down ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outcome. ECB may hike rates for the eighth straight time. Sensex opened 75 points lower at 63,154 and fell 311 points, or 0.50% to close at 62,918. Nifty closed the day with a loss of 68 points, or 0.40 per cent, at 18,688. However, bank nifty was biggest loser today led by heavyweights private banks like HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank. Bank Nifty nosedived over 1% today. FIIs were net buyers Rs3086cr while DIIs were net sellers Rs298cr .
 
·      Nifty Technical Levels – Nifty formed a Bearish candle on daily scale but has been making higher highs from the last three sessions. Now it has to hold above 18676 zones to witness an up move towards 18777 and 18888 zones while on the downside support exists at 18636 and 18550 zones.
 
·      Bank Nifty Technical Levels – Bank Nifty formed a Big Bearish candle on daily scale as sustained selling pressure was seen throughout the day as private Banks remained under pressure. Now till it holds below 43750 zones weakness could be seen towards 43250 then 43000 levels while on the upside hurdle is placed at 43750 then 44000 levels.

·      Actionable BUY – Brigade, BHEL, BSE Ltd, Global Health, Tata Steel and Mazagoan Dock
 
·      Brokers Radar – ITC TGT by Nomura at 485, Nomura TGT on Ceat Ltd at 1765, Ashok Leland TGT by Nomura at 187.
 
·      Events – FTSE Rebalancing today, IKIO IPO listing today while it has been subscribed by 68 times, Rating agency Moody’s to meet with Government officials.  
 
·      Corporate Action  - ex-dividend PFC Rs4.50, Angel One Rs4, Piramal Enterprises Rs16, Torrent Power Rs4, Welspun Corp Rs5, Wipro share buy-back
 
·      Global Data – Fed Service Business Activities (US), Bank of Japan interest rate decision
 
·      Market Summary – Reliance in talks for $2bn loan to fuel expansion,  SAT gives no immediate relief to Zee promoters, refuses to stay Sebi order, Godrej Properties to buy 7.44-acre land parcel in Kolkata, Cochin Shipyard wins order, PNB, LIC, SBI and BoB looking to seek formal bids for stake sale in UTI AMC, Govt cuts import duties on Refined Soybean and Sunflower. Bharat Heavy Electricals, Titagarh Rail Consortium to Supply 80 Vande Bharat Express slipper train. Foxconn Seeks to Set Up Electric Vehicle Factory in India: ET
 
·      Ramkrishna Forgings and Titagarh Rail Systems – Both companies awarded the contract to manufacture and supply 15,40,000 forged wheels over a span of 20 years, under the AatmaNirbhar Bharat Initiative by Ministry of Railways, Government of India with the total contract valued at  Rs12,226.5 crores – positive.
 
·      FTSE, Sensex rebalancing to take place on Friday - Here are the changes expected – Some stocks that need to be kept on the radar due to the changes include Medanta or Global Health. The stock will be included in the FTSE All Cap Index and is likely to see inflows of $8.1 million. Piramal Pharma is the other inclusion in the FTSE All Cap Index, and can see inflows of $11.1 million. – media report
 
·      Tata Consumers – Company announced its entry into the Ready to Drink Cold Coffee category with the launch of Tata Coffee Gold- Cold Brew.- positive.
 
·      Axis Bank - Private investment firm Bain Capital has sold partial stake in private lender Axis Bank via block deal on Thursday, while many domestic and foreign funds lapped up the shares.- we are positive on the stock.
 
·      Samvardhana Motherson - Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems, a subsidiary of Samvardhana Motherson International, through one of its European subsidiaries, has signed
·      a binding undertaking to acquire a 100% stake in Cirma Enterprise. – positive
 
·      Tech Mahindra - Tech Mahindra has appointed Mohit Joshi as the MD and CEO of the company with effect from 20 December 2023. The current CEO CP Gurnani is set to retire on December 19, 2023. - positive
 
·      Reliance Industries - Company is in talks with lenders for a foreign-currency loan of up to $2 billion to fuel the ongoing expansion of its oil-to-telecoms business.
 
·      Natco Pharma- Company has announced the successful closure of inspection and received Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the USFDA for its drug formulations manufacturing facility at Visakhapatnam (Vizag), Andhra Pradesh - positive
 
·      BHEL – Company and Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles Limited (VECVL) signed an MoU for taking up a "Joint project for development & deployment of Type - IV Cylinders (Hydrogen / CNG) in Commercial Vehicle Segment". – positive
 
·      Welspun Corp – Company has received the BIS license for 1200DN K7, K8 and K9. With this, the company have covered the full range of 80-1200DN for ISI marking. - positive
 
·      Zee Entrainment - The Securities Appellate Tribunal on Thursday declined to grant immediate relief to Essel group chairman Subhash Chandra and his son Punit Goenka against directions passed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in an alleged fund diversion case – Expects volatile n the stock but long term positive.
 
·      Focus on Auto ancillary stocks - Foxconn is looking to start electric vehicle manufacturing in India, Economic Times reports. Foxconn in talks with some India’s local authorities about the
·      project – expects positive for Amara Raja Batteries, JBM Auto,
 
·      Godrej Properties – Company has emerged as the highest bidder to acquire 7.44-acre land parcel in Kolkata for development of a  luxury housing project, which has an estimated sales revenue potential of around Rs1,200cr – positive
 
·      Titagarh and BHEL – A consortium led by BHEL and Titagarh Rail bagged a contract worth Rs24000cr from Indian Railways for the manufacturing and supply of 80 fully assembled sleeper train sets for Vande Bharat Express by 2029 and their maintenance for 35 years - Positive
 
·      KIOCL Ltd – Company has announced that the operations of Pellet Plant Unit of the Company at Mangalore have been restarted today i.e., with effect from June 15, 2023.- positive
 
·      Panacea Biotec – Company announced the launch of its new range of high-quality pediatric food & nutritional products ChilRun, ChilRun Full, ChilRun No Sucrose, ChilRun 7+ in different flavours and sizes in India – positive
 
·      Cochin Shipyard – Company has won a Rs 580 crore order from Norway's Wilson Shipowning AS. Company to design and construct six 3800 DWT general cargo vessels, to be delivered from 2024 to 2026. Contract includes an option for 8 more vessels. - positive
 
·      FDC - US FDA Inspection at Company's manufacturing facility located at Roha, Raigad  and Receipt of Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) with No Action Indicated - positive
 
·      G R Infraprojects – Company has emerged as L‐1 bidder in Financial Bid Opening dated 15th June 2023 for the tender "Four laning of NH 530B from Kasganj Bypass End to Chandan in the State of Uttar Pradesh on HAM model, project worth Rs1085.5cr - positive.
 
·      Som Distillates - Market Share in Karnataka Witnesses Phenomenal Growth, Reaching a Historic 20.1% in May 2023. Karnataka, renowned for its dynamic market and discerning consumer base, presents a highly competitive landscape for beverage companies. – positive
 
·      KPI Green - Company have received Commissioning Certificates from Gujarat Energy Development Agency ('GEDA') for capacity of 3.40 MWdc solar power project – positive
 
·      Bliss GVS Pharma – Company had earlier announced that the US FDA conducted a Pre-Approval Inspection  and Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) at the Company's manufacturing unit at Palghar. Pursuant to above inspection by the US FDA has now received the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) indicating closure of the inspection through which the US FDA agency assigned the inspection classification of the facility as "Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI)". – Long term positive
 
·      PNB, LIC, SBI and BoB looking to seek formal bids for stake sale in UTI AMC - PNB, LIC, SBI, and Bank of Baroda, all owned by the Centre, are working on inviting bids for selling their stake in the UTI AMC – ET Report – we are positive on SBI, BoB and LIC
 
·      Wipro – Company opens new 5G DEF-1 innovation center in Austin Texas – Positive
 
·      Persistent Systems – Company opens new hub in Texas to expand presences in US - Positive
 
·      Dilip Buildcon - Company announced the completion of the NH5 section project. The project included rehabilitation and a six-lane highway upgradation of the Chandikhole-Bhadrak Section in Odisha worth Rs 522-crore project which carried out under a hybrid-annuity mode under the National Highways Development Project – positive
 
·      PTC India: PTC India named Mahendra Lodha as director (finance) and the chief financial officer of the company – positive
 
·      IndiaMART : The company approved the reappointment of Dhruv Prakash as director liable to retire by rotation. – positive
 
·      DCW: The company will produce lower soda ash by an estimated 6 KMT in the first quarter of fiscal 2023-2024 due to an unforeseen mechanical breakdown of the carbon dioxide gas compressor in its soda ash plant. – Any sharp decline will be buying opportunity
 
·      GAIL India – Sanjay Kumar assumes charge director of marketing - positive
 
·      HCL Tech -  Company and Microsoft expand collaboration to boost innovation and adoption of generative AI with Microsoft's Azure OpenAI Service – Positive
 
·      TVS Motor – Company sells entire stake in Emerald Haven Realty and the company plans to raise the prices of the iQube electric scooter in response to the revision of the Fame II subsidy. The revised prices will vary between Rs17,000 and Rs22,000, depending on the specific variant of the scooter. – positive
 
·      Laurus Lab – company got USFDA Establishment inspection report (EIR) its Visakhapatnam plant which was eairler inspected by the USFDA – Positive after got USFDA no objection  
 
·      Government cuts import duties on Refined Soybean and Sunflower Oils - The government reduced base import taxes on refined soybean and sunflower oils to 12.5%, from 17.5% - Expects positive for Marico, Patanjali Food and Godrej Agrovet
 
·      Trade Deficit Widens To $22.1 Billion In May - Trade deficit widened in May as exports fell at a faster rate than imports. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $22.1 billion in May, compared to $15.2 billion in April. Merchandise exports fell by 10.2% year-on-year to $35 billion in May 2023.Merchandise imports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to $57.1 billion in May– inline with expectation
 
·      MIC Electronics – Company receives LoA for order worth Rs. 5.13 crore from Southern Railway Zone for providing of Passenger Information System in connection with Amrit Bharat Scheme in Chinna Salem – positive
 
·      Pitti Engineering  - Company  announced a transaction that merges the supply chain, margins and revenue of group company Pitti Castings Private Limited (PCPL) which is engaged in the manufacturing of High-Quality Casting in Grey Iron, Ductile Iron, Low Carbon and Alloy Steel Grades – positive
 
 

Urban unemployment rate

Urban unemployment rate (Jan-Mar, 2023):
🧑‍🏭🧑‍🌾👨‍🏭 🇮🇳

Top
Himachal: 15.2%
CG: 12.5%
J&K: 12.4%
Rajasthan: 11.9%
Kerala: 9.7%
Punjab: 9.0%

Bottom
Gujarat: 3.0%
Delhi: 3.1%
West Bengal: 4.2%
Karnataka: 5.1%
Maharashtra: 6.1%

(PLFS)

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Derivatives update

*Derivatives update*

Good morning !!
Derivatives update for Thursday, 15th June 2023.

India VIX was up by 0.47% from 11.11 to 11.16 levels. Volatility was slightly high but overall lower levels have supported the bulls at higher zones.

Nifty *Put/Call Ratio* (OI) increased from 1.13 to 1.23 level. 

On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18900 then 18800 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18600 strike. Minor Call writing is seen at 18850 then 18900 strike while meaningful Put writing is seen at 18700 then 18750 strike.

*Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 18500 to 18900 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18650 to 18850 zones.*

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 44000 then 42500 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 44000 then 44200 strike. We have seen minor Call writing at 44000 and Put writing is witnessed at 44000 strike as well.

Bank Nifty Put Call Ratio decreased from 0.87 to 0.73. Implied volatility rose from 12.5 to 12.8 levels.

Bank Nifty (CMP 43,988)
Data setup for Bank Nifty suggests a trading range in between *43750/43900 to 44250/44500 zones.*

Looking ahead at the FII’s derivatives activity, there was long built up in index futures, call & put selling in index options and short built up in stock futures.

In the cash market, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1715 crores while DII’s were net sellers worth 655 crores. FIIs Index Long Short Ratio increased to 53.82%.

Derivatives data and price set up suggests, Nifty has to hold above 18676 zones to witness an up move towards 18888 and 19000 zones while on the downside support exists at 18676 and 18636 zones.

Bank Nifty has to hold above 44044 zones for an up move towards 44250 then 44500 zones while on the downside support is seen at 43900 then 43750 levels.

Thank you. Have a great trading day and weekly expiry ahead..!!

Pre-Market Derivatives and Technical Set-up

*Pre-Market Derivatives and Technical Set-up*

◆ Nifty index opened positive and after a slight decline in the initial tick, it regained strength and moved in the upward direction throughout the day. It touched intraday high of 18768 zones and closed with gains of around 40 points. Index remained afloat but has been moving in a lackluster way. It formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and bulls established a strong closing after days of lackluster move

◆ Now it has to hold above 18676 zones to witness an up move towards 18888 and 19000 zones while on the downside support exists at 18676 and 18636 zones

◆ India VIX was up by 0.47% from 11.11 to 11.16 levels. Volatility was slightly high but overall lower levels have supported the bulls at higher zones
 
◆ On option front, weekly maximum Call OI is at 18900 then 18800 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18600 strike. Minor Call writing is seen at 18850 then 18900 strike while meaningful Put writing is seen at 18700 then 18750 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 18500 to 18900 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18650 to 18850 zones

◆ Bank Nifty opened on a positive note near 44200 zones but failed to hold its opening gains and drifted gradually towards 43950 zones. It remained consolidative in a narrow range of 100 points for most part of the session and closed below 44000 zones. It formed a Bearish candle on daily scale as it closed below its opening levels but index is holding above its crucial support of 20 DEMA. It has got stuck in range of 300 points from past few sessions and requires a decisive close above 44144 zones for any major momentum

◆ Now it has to hold above 44044 zones for an up move towards 44250 then 44500 zones while on the downside support is seen at 43900 then 43750 levels

◆ Bullish setup in Tataconsum, Oberoirlty, Zydus Life, Tatacomm, Grasim, HAL, IDFC First Bank, OFSS, Tatasteel, L&TFH, Jswsteel, MGL, Godrejprop, Ashokley, Tatamotors, Trent and Apollo Hospital

◆ Bearish setup in Bandhan Bank, Ipca Labs, Balram Chini, BHEL, MFSL and HDFC

Fed leaves interest rates UNCHANGED

1. Fed leaves interest rates UNCHANGED

2. Unanimous decision for rate action

3. Holding rates steady to "assess policy impact" 

4. Strong support for MORE rate HIKES this year

5. Fed sees inflation at 2.5% by end of 2024

For the first time in 15 months, the Fed did not raise rates.