Assocham sees excessive use of monetary policy hurting growth

A recent study by the industry body Assocham has concluded that continued monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was beginning to have negative impact on Indian businesses as rising cost of funding was not only squeezing profit margins but also rendering some investment plans unviable.

“The country is pursuing a high growth strategy and braving the pains of high inflation. If the economy continues to use monetary policy without fiscal consolidation of appropriate degree, higher interest rates will continue to fuel high cost of production and squeeze profit margins of India Inc,' observed the study conducted to evaluate current economic health of the country.

It advocated that the government should also begin focusing more on the fiscal consolidation and try to focus on improving the efficiency of public spending. The central bank too had pointed out a number of times that a high fiscal deficit was hindrance to effective working of monetary policy. While the government has budgeted the deficit for current fiscal at 4.6%, which sounds reasonably low in current circumstances, experts doubt that there could be upside to the budgeted level in wake of surging crude prices and implied increase in subsidy outgo.  

The study by Assocham also observed that a large part of the inflation problem stemmed from food prices that were rising because of supply shortage. Even though some food article prices were cooling, the food articles index was still hovering at 10% rate from previous year. This could result in a more broad-based inflation in manufactured sector as well, concluded the study.

Further, while inflation was high, industrial growth was slowing down. The Assocham noted that the industrial production dropped to 5.5% in the third quarter of current fiscal year from 9.1% in second quarter and 12% in the first. While there was a slowdown in consumer goods too, greater worry was the slump seen in capital goods sector. The latter reflected that future industrial growth prospects too would be weak until the investment cycle picks up further. This however is unlikely while the central bank is hiking its policy rates in every review.