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Monday, July 3, 2023

STOCKS IN ACTION

STOCKS IN ACTION 3 July

Escorts Kubota: June Total Sales 9,850 Units Vs 9167 Units (MoM)

Atul Auto: June Total Sales 1267 Units Vs 1101 Units (MoM)

Tata Motors: June Total Sales 80,383 Units Vs Est 78,070; 74,973 Units (MoM)

PVR Inox: The company opened a 10-screen multiplex in Delhi and a 5-screen multiplex in Ahmedabad. With this launch, the company now operates the largest multiplex network with 1697 screens at 360 properties in 114 cities, including India and Sri Lanka.

TVSMotor expects growth momentum to continue in the current fiscal, with the overall economy anticipated to grow at a robust pace and a continuous improvement in the road infrastructure.

HDFC: HDFC Bank Merger Record Date Set As July 13 
Appointed Date 2, Under The Scheme, For The Amalgamation Of HDFC Limited With And Into HDFC Bank, Will Thus Be Saturday July 1, 2023

Vedanta: Announces Strategic Review Of Steel And Steel Raw Materials Businesses 
Continues To Review Its Strategic Priorities In Normal Course Of Its Capital Allocation Discussions

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd: Ministry of Defence signs a contract of Rs 2,725 cr with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd for Medium Refit with Life Certification of Submarine INS Shankush

Kansai Nerolac Paints: Approved Sale Of Co's Kavesar Land Including Sale Of Additional Area For 6.71b Rupees

SBI: Charanjit Surinder Singh Attra resigns as Chief Financial Officer of SBI, w.e.f. today, June 30

Aditya Birla Capital announces closure of QIB; raises Rs 1,750 crore

CSB Bank revises base rate to 11.05% p.a. from 10.20% p.a., effective July 1
Keeps lending rates unchanged

Hero MotoCorp hike prices of its motorcycles & scooters by around 1.5%, w.e.f. July 3

Shiva Cement: Says Commissioned 1.36 Mtpa Clinker Unit And 9 Mw Waste Heat Recovery In Odisha 
Already Received CTO From State Pollution Control Board For 0.66 Mtpa Clinker

Reliance Industries: Reliance And BP Commence Production From Third Deepwater Field In India’s Kg D6 Block 
At Its Peak, Production From The Kg D6 Block To Account For One Third Of India’s Domestic Gas Production
Separately, RIL also sold 1.23 crore compulsory convertible preference shares, or 2.89% of the fully diluted share capital, of Viacom 18 to Bodhi Tree Systems.

Granules: US FDA completes pre-approval inspection (PAI) & GMP Audit of Unit IV facility in Visakhapatnam with zero observations
Alert, US FDA had inspected the facility from June 26-30, 2023

Dynamatic Technologies: Unit Applies For "Protective Shield Process" Under German Laws

WALCHANDNAGAR INDUSTRIES: LARGE TRADE
Alert, ASSETS CARE AND RECONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISE
Sold 241,123 Shares @ Rs 80.47/ Share

GHCL TEXTILES: LARGE TRADE
VANGUARD MODERATE GROWTH FUND
Sold 488,126 Shares @ Rs 73.22/ Share

EASY TRIP PLANNERS: LARGE TRADE
Promoter RIKANT PITTIE
Sold 10,00,00,000 (10 Crore) Shares @ Rs 40.05/ Share
Mobilised = Rs 400.5 Crores
Reported BUYER
SOCIETE GENERALE 
BUY 1,50,00,000 (1.5 Crore) Shares

ADANI TRANSMISSION: LARGE TRADE
Promoter Entity
FORTITUDE TRADE AND INVESTMENT LTD
Sold 3,39,17,200 @ Rs 786.17/ Share
Mobilised = Rs 2666 Crores
Buyer GQG PARTNER

Market Indication

Market Indication:
Global: FLAT to POSITIVE

NIFTY: FLAT to POSITIVE

BANKNIFTY:  FLAT to POSITIVE

BULK Deals: TD Power Systems, Easy Trip Planners, Syrma SGS Technology etc.

Stocks In F&O Ban Period: Indiabulls Housing Finance

Results Today: Nil

GIFT NIFTY:  (Positive)

19360     +15.00    +0.08%

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Tata Motors EV Sales

Tata Motors EV ⚡️sales (Units):

June 2023: 7,025
                   ↑ 95%
June 2022: 3,608

(Company)
#TataMotors

NPAs of Indian banks

Net Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of Indian banks (%): 🏦🇮🇳 

2023: 1.0%
2018: 6.1%
2014: 2.2%
2010: 1.1%
2006: 1.3%
2002: 5.8%

(RBI Financial Stability Report, June 2023)

Money Times Talk - July 2, 2023

Money Times Talk - July 2, 2023

HAL to split its share from FV of Rs.10 to Rs.5 and has declared a final dividend of Rs.15. This Defence major is a multi-bagger in the long run. Accumulate.

Manappuram Finance plans to raise funds via. debt offerings for the augmentation of its business. Add in small lots.

PNC Infratech has an agreement with the Ministry of Road Transportation & Highways for three projects worth Rs.819 cr. to be completed in 24 months and operated for next 15 years. A big positive. Add.

Sterlite Tech has introduced a communication system for the Kochi water metro. The project will open up new opportunities for trade, commerce and social interactions. Add.

Pearl Global has announced its strategic expansion into Guatemala by acquiring 55% stake in Pearl GT Holdco Ltd. for $550000 which will be funded internally. A big positive. Add.

Hariom Pipes has commenced production at its Mahabubnagar plant and the total capacity of MS Pipes is now 132000 TPA from 84000 TPA. A big positive. Add.

Kamdhenu Ventures has approved a bonus issue in the ratio of 1:1. It is set to see newer heights. Add.

M&M has received a PLI eligibility certificate. Further, it plans to demerge some of its business verticals to unlock value for its shareholders. A big positive. Add for the long term.

In an attempt to unlock value, Lupin has chalked out plans to demerge its API business. Add for the long term.

Shakti Pumps has reportedly bagged new orders from Uganda and is gearing up to increase its capacity. Add.

The Central Govt. has offered loans of Rs.1.4 trillion to the States to push reforms in the power sector. PFC and REC can be big beneficiaries. Add on dips.

P&G plans to invest Rs.2000 cr. on a factory at Sanand, Gujarat, to make healthcare products and also make it an export hub. Add.

After losses for last three years, Tata Motors has posted profit of Rs.2689 cr. It has plans to generate 50% of its revenue from the EV segment. Add in small lots.

Sheela Foam is set to acquire Kurlon for Rs.3250 cr. which will help enhance its market share and improve its hold in the market. A big positive. Add.

The Govt. is planning a subsidy scheme for making electricity grid batteries worth Rs.21600 cr. This scheme could benefit Eveready. Add.

Canara Bank will raise Rs.7500 cr. via. Tier-I and Tier-2 bonds for onward lending and improving its capital adequacy norms. Buy.

Karnataka Bank stated that the current working is excellent and it will scale new heights in the future. Add on dips.

BEL has won orders worth Rs.2191 cr. from the Defence Ministry for supply of long-range guidance kit with a warhead, airborne V/UHF jammers and other products. A big positive. Add.

Paytm has partnered with Shriram Finance to offer financial services to its users and it may recover the lost ground. Risk bearing investors may add in small lots.

Kalpataru Projects has bagged orders worth Rs.1008 cr. in the transmission and distribution business. Add for the long term.

Hindware Home Innovations is a fast growing company in its segment and is planning to launch a wide range of latest products in the market. Add.

Indian Bank notched FY23 EPS of Rs.44.8, which may lead to FY24 EPS of Rs.55+. A reasonable P/E of 8x could take its share price to Rs.440+. Add.

Canara Bank notched 77% higher FY23 EPS of Rs.62, which may lead to FY24 EPS of Rs.72+. A reasonable P/E of 8x could take its share price to Rs.576. Buy.
Repco Home Finance notched 62% higher FY23 EPS of Rs.50.6, which may lead to EPS of Rs 62 in FY24.

Cigniti Technologies has announced its recognition as Product Challengers and Contenders in the ISG Provider Lens Digital Engineering Services 2023 Study. It notched FY23 EPS of Rs.60 which may lead to FY24 EPS of Rs.72. Buy.

Karnataka Bank shares are being grabbed by investors as it posted FY23 EPS of Rs 37.8 and set to garner Rs 48 in FY24. EPS of Rs.62. MFs and FPIs together hold 32% stake in the in company. Buy.

Chamanlal Setia notched 82% higher FY23 EPS of Rs.22.8, which may lead to FY24 EPS of Rs.30+. Buy.

Chennai Petroleum shares are being bought by interested parties as this Indian Oil subsidiary has notched FY23 EPS of Rs.231. Add for good returns.

Geekay Wires notched 204% higher FY23 EPS of Rs.26, which may lead to FY24 EPS of Rs.45. Buy.

KKR's Highways Infrastructure Trust may acquire 12 road projects from PNC Infratech for Rs.9000 cr. in addition to its order book of Rs.15676 cr. as at FY23. Add.

PFC recorded FY23 PAT of Rs.15889.33 cr. while it is available at market cap of Rs.51984 cr. The book value of its share is Rs.319. Accumulate.

Hindustan Oil Exploration posted FY23 NP of Rs.194 cr. from Rs.20 cr. YoY. It is plans to drill 18 wells in Arunachal to increase its production. Keep it on your radar.

ITD Cementation’s FY23 PAT rose 80% and FY24 looks more promising. It has huge orders on hand worth Rs.20044 cr. Add for good returns.

Anantraj’s FY23 NP zoomed 176% and it has aggressively ventured into the Data Centres business, which is a highly profitable rental business. Add.

Texmaco Rail’s Q4FY23 PAT zoomed 222%. It has bagged an order for 20067 wagons worth Rs.6450 cr. and more big orders are in pipeline. In FY24, a growth of 30-35% is expected due to huge order book. Add,

TAJ GVK Hotels posted 706% higher PAT in FY23. Its share trades at a P/E of 18.6x which is the cheapest compared to EIH, Chalet Hotels, Lemon Tree Hotels etc. Add for hefty gains.

NTPC made 52-week high on 30th June with big volumes and is likely to hit double century very soon. Keep it on your radar.

Himatsingka Seide’s Q4PAT rose 178% to Rs.22.35 cr. from Rs.8 cr. in Q4FY22. Its Q1FY24 profit is likely to improve further due to sharp decline in cotton prices. Add.

Shilp Gravures recorded PAT of Rs.7.81 cr. HNI Ashok Lodha holds 2.42%, S. D. Patel holds 1.44% and M. Lodha holds 1.43%. The share is at very attractive valuation cum 21% dividend. Add.

Friday market rumours had it that Poonawala Fincorp or Blackstone group may take a stake in Indiabulls Hsg. Finance. If this happens, it can cross its 52-week high of Rs.159. Add.

Sigachi Ind. will issue 1,10,00,000 convertible warrants at Rs.261 to the promoters and certain non-promoter entities. Add for good returns.

Gulshan Polyoils CMP is below its QIP price of Rs.326. In FY23, a huge capex revalued its fixed assets from Rs.200 cr. to Rs.800 cr. Its new grain based Ethanol plant of 500 KLPD capacity is operational. Add for hefty gains.

NRB Bearing’s Q4 PAT rose 93% from Rs.17.46 cr. in Q4FY22. The promoters bought 132716 shares on 23rd June from the open market. HDFC Small cap Fund holds 9.25% stake in it. Add for good returns.

BDH Industries exports therapeutic formulations to over 60 countries and posted excellent results in FY23. It is available at very attractive valuation cum 40% dividend. Keep it on your radar.

Hariyana Ship Breakers notched Q4 EPS of Rs.6. Its P/BV is just 0.36x. It is a big beneficiary of the scrapping policy. The promoters hold 75% of the equity capital. Add for hefty gains.

Sinclair Hotels notched Q4 EPS of Rs.7.33 and a dividend of 75% has been declared. It recently did a buy-back at Rs.143. Buy for hefty gains.

FIIs are continuously raising their stake in NCC and Prakash Industries. Keep them on your radar.

Kuantum Papers has approved the capex projects for modernization worth Rs.285 cr. India’s Paper industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.63% by 2028. Buy.

ThinkInk Picturez FY23 revenue rose 170% YoY. It has an inventory of 50+ stories which includes films, web series and TV shows that are to be rolled out in partnership with renowned M&E players. Add for good returns.

Mishtann Foods promoters recently increased their stake. It also reported stellar earnings for Q4FY23. Earlier, Nomura Singapore Ltd. ODI, increased its stake to 1.28%. Buy.

Rajesh Exports had signed a pact with the Karnataka Govt. for a 5 GWh lithium-ion cell factory for Rs.181 billion PLI programme to produce advanced chemistry lithium-ion cells. Add.

Suzlon Energy has 20 GW wind energy installations across 12647 wind turbines across 17 countries. Its order book stood at 652 MW as at FY23 and orders secured subsequently stand at 890 MW. Add for hefty gains.

Univastu India’s FY23sales rose 36.67% to Rs.80.13 cr. from Rs.58.63 cr. in FY22. Its EBITDA improved from Rs.12.84 cr. to 14.69 cr. and PAT grew from Rs.5.22 cr. to Rs.6.58 cr. which may rise t in coming years as it consistently bags new orders. Add.

Synoptics Technologies maiden in IPO on NSE SME opened on 30th June and will close on 5th July. Co. had a robust order book of Rs 28 cr. as of 31st May. Financially,it posted 57% growth in revenue and 137% in PAT in FY 22.

 Cressanda Solutions’ Rs. 49.30 cr. Rights Issue opened for subscription. Company has entered the A Group – a big positive for the stock with a long-term perspective.

Permanent Magnets share has quadrupled on use of magnets in electric cars. A hidden gem in the same space is Delta Magnets. At the CMP of Rs.77 with 52-wekk high/low of Rs.108/61, it could provide good returns. Add.

VFX players are enjoying a booming business. Prime Focus, an old and established VFX player, is a fundamentally strong company. Its stock trades at a P/E of just 10x. Keep it on your radar.

Keep Automotive Stampings on radar as it not only supplies to parent Tata Motors but also to other OEMs. Its 52-week high price is Rs.900+ whereas the stock trades at around Rs.400. Accumulate.

Welspun Enterprises which is into waste management, plans to double its revenues and profits in the coming two years. Add for the long term.

In a growing economy, financial services play a key role. Must look at Shriram Finance, which is diversifying after restructuring. A proven management track record and low valuation makes it attractive.

L&T Finance is restructuring its businesses. Again an attractive valuation
Also look at *Cholamandalam*. A trustworthy corporate house with consistent growth

Dhunseri Ventures is into PET resin, Fast Food chain & Infrastructure. It posted FY23 NP of Rs 542 cr. in FY23 with an EPS of Rs 155. Stock is trading below PE of 2x. With a strong balance sheet and all businesses doing well buy it for 50% returns in the short term.

Summit Securities, holding co. of the RPG group, is valued around Rs 7700 cr. but the stockis trading at 90% discount to its NAV of Rs 7000/ share whereas holding cos. of other groups trade between 50% to 75% discount only. It may cross 4 digit mark soon. Buy.

Money Times Talk is part of 'Money Times' publication.

Result Callendar

Result Callendar

Saturday, July 1, 2023

SGX Nifty

 *SGX Nifty will start trading on NSE IFSC on July 3rd as GIFT NIFTY*

*Timings - 2 sessions*

1 - Morning - 6.30 am to 3.40 pm

2 - Evening - 4.35 pm to 2.45 am

last 𝟰𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫

Analysis of the last 𝟰𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫


🔰 There were around 𝟭𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 in the last 43 years.

🔰 Observations on positive and negative return occurrences.

𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 - 53% time Positive and 47% time Negative.

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 - 56% time Positive and 44% time Negative

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 - 61% time Positive and 39% time Negative
 
𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆- 64% time Positive and 36% time Negative

𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 - 72% time Positive and 28% time Negative

𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 - 89% time Positive and 11% time Negative

𝟱 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀- 96% time Positive and 4% time Negative 

𝟭𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀- 100% time Positive and 0% time Negative 

🔰 SENSEX delivered 𝟭𝟱.𝟱% 𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥 returns over the last 43 years. 

🔰 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 dispersion (CAGR)

𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬 - 21.6%
𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 - 14.3%
𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬 -17.8%
𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬 - 8.8%.*              
2020~ 2022 - 24.8%

🔰 BSE Sensex returns 15.5%, if we add an average dividend yield of 1.4% for the last 43 years. 

At 16.9% compounding the value of BSE is actually around 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟴𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.🚀

🔰 Longest 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 was from 1994 to 2003. 9 years in total.

🔰 Since 2002, in the last 18 years 𝗡𝗢 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝟳 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀. 

This means since 2002 if you ever invested and kept money for a minimum period of 7 years then you would have 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆.

🔰 But what is most surprising and rewarding has been the performance of actively managed equity funds. Here are the data:

𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗼𝗿𝘆𝘄𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 (𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥)   

𝗛𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 - 15.96%
𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱 -16.25%
𝗘𝗟𝗦𝗦 - 18.20%
**𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 - 16.41%*

 ** excluding LIC/JM/Taurus/Quant MF schemes.

🔰 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝟯𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟲 (𝟮𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸). 

In the last 26 years, average-ex MF delivered 18% CAGR. 

Had Sensex delivered as much as average MF schemes then the value of BSE Sensex should have been:

At 16.4% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 1,70,000 levels
At 18% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 2,38,000 levels.

Isn't this amazing !!!

SGX Nifty

 *SGX Nifty will start trading on NSE IFSC on July 3rd as GIFT NIFTY*

*Timings - 2 sessions*

1 - Morning - 6.30 am to 3.40 pm

2 - Evening - 4.35 pm to 2.45 am

Mutual Fund AUM

Size of India’s Mutual Fund industry in May (Total AUM in Rs. Lakh Crore): 🇮🇳📈

2023: 42.9
2022: 37.3
2021: 32.9
2020: 24.3
2019: 25.4
2018: 22.6
2017: 19.0
2016: 13.8
2015: 12.0
2014: 10.1

(AMFI)

SAVINGS RATES

GOVERNMENT HIKES SMALL SAVINGS RATES ||

GOVT HIKES SMALL SAVINGS RATES MARGINALLY BY 10 TO 30 BPS || RATES FOR PPF, NSC, KISAN VIKAS PATRA, SENIOR CITIZEN SCHEME, SUKANYA SAMRIDHHI SCHEME UNCHANGED

Muthoot Finance in Focus

Muthoot Finance in Focus

MUTHOOT MICROFIN LIMITED FILES DRHP WITH SEB
Muthoot Microfin is the 4th largest NBFC-MFI in India in terms of gross loan portfolio  
Co. plans to raise funds via IPO upto Rs. 1350 crore 
(Fresh + OFS)

FII and DII data

FII and DII data Cash segment 30th June 

FII net buy ₹ 6397 cr
DII net buy ₹1197 cr

Again Massive Buying from FII 

Infact both FII and DII on buying side that took Sensex, nifty , bank nifty and fin nifty to ATH

GST collection for June 2023

GST collection for June 2023 

🔸₹1,61,497 crore gross GST revenue collected for June 2023; records 12% Year-on-Year growth

🔸Gross GST collection crosses ₹1.6 lakh crore mark for 4th time since inception of GST; ₹1.4 lakh crore for 16 months in a row; and ₹1.5 lakh 7th times since inception

🔸Average monthly gross GST collection for Q1 of FY2021-22 is ₹1.10 lakh crore; FY2022-23 is ₹1.51 lakh crore; and FY2023-24 is ₹1.69 lakh crore, respectively

Source: PIB 

#icicidirect

Friday, June 30, 2023

FII and DII data

FII and DII data Cash segment 30th June 

FII net buy ₹ 6397 cr
DII net buy ₹1197 cr

Again Massive Buying from FII 

Infact both FII and DII on buying side that took Sensex, nifty , bank nifty and fin nifty to ATH

June Auto Sales

*June Auto Sales Estimates YoY (To be announced on 01st July 2023):*

*Ashok Leyland:* 17417 units versus 14531 units ( *Up 1.1%* )

*Tata Motors:* 77978 units versus 82570 units ( *Down 5.8%* )

*M&M Auto:* 62100 units versus 54096 units ( *Up 15.0%* )

*M&M Tractor:* 40980 units versus 41848 units ( *Down 2.0%* )

*Maruti:* 1.68 lakh units versus 1.56 lakh units ( *Up 8.0%* )

*Hero Motocorp:* 5.1 lakh units versus 4.85 lakh units ( *Up 3.1%* )

*TVS Motors:* 3.24 lakh units versus 3.08 lakh units ( *Up 5.0%* )

*Bajaj Auto:* 3.50 lakh units versus 2.75 lakh units ( *Up 1.1%* )

*Eicher Motors RE:* 77000 units versus 61407 units ( *Up 24.8%* )

News and Impact

News and Impact 
 
 
      Favourable domestic economy data, impressive July series F&O rollover and persistent FIIs buying interest may open domestic market on a positive note. SGX Nifty is up over half percent or 100 points after previous day closed on a record high. In the US Mraket, better than expected US Q1 GDP data (up 2% while expectation 1.4%) and most of the US Banks cleared stress test (means well capitalized) lifted US market gained nearly 1%. However, US Dollar Index spiked to 1-month high to above 103 and rising US Bond yield after the US Labor Department data showed Thursday that US jobless claims fell last week by the most since 2021. Stronger-than-expected data on the US economy kept Wall Street on alert for further interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, US Fed chairman Powell on Wednesday said policymakers could potentially raise interest rates in July and September. Back home, expects rally to continue due to improving domestic macroeconomic conditions, better corporate earnings and fall in monsoon deficiency will boosted the market sentiment. Traders focus on auto stocks ahead of monthly sales data to be announce next week. Banking stocks may positive after the RBI says thet the bad-debt ratios fall to decade low at Indian Banks.
 
·      US Market   –  U.S. stocks ended mixed on Thursday as fresh economic data indicated that U.S. growth remains resilient and the country's largest lenders passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test. Dow Jones gained over half percent while Nasdaq Composite ended flat. However, Dow Jones ended flat after adjustment of last couple of days (Indian equity was shut on Thursday).
 
·      Global market summary – US Q1 GDP reported better than expected at 2% vs 1.3% (previous quarter) while expectation was 2%. Gold fell to 3 months low. US 2-Year and 10-Year Bond surged to nearly 1-month high. US Dollar Index surged to 1-month high to above 103.
 
·      Asian Market – Asian stocks open on a mixed bag to the last day of the quarter following a choppy session for US equities as Treasury yields soared on bets on further tightening by the Federal Reserve. Japan, Australia Index declined half percent each while Taiwan and South Korea Index marginally gain. Australian and New Zealand sovereign bond yields jumped about nine basis points in early trading, as the upward pressure on rates flowed through into Asia. Economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates at its meeting next week
 
·      European Market – European stocks ended mixed bag with banks outperforming after Wall Street peers passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test.  UK Index slipped 0.4% while France Index advance 0.4%. European equities have been stuck in a range recently, with the rally capped by worries about an economic slowdown as central banks drive home the message that rates will stay higher for longer.
 
·      Oil –  Crude oil futures prices gained on Thursday upon continuous support from bullish U.S. oil inventory data last week. Brent Crude is hovering at $74/bbl.
 
·      Gold – Gold is trading flat to $1908/ounce after intra-day fell to below $1900/ounce following US unemployment data that raised expectations for more tightening by the Federal Reserve
 
·      Previous Day market Update –  Bulls was back in the Dalal Street ring after a long time. Equity market scaled record high levels as across the major Index – Nifty, Bank Nifty, Fin-Nifty and Sensex surged to record high amid strong domestic cues were supported by gains in global markets. The benchmark index Nifty rose nearly a percent to hit its fresh all-time high level of above 19,000, while the Sensex also jumped to a record level, crossing 64,000-mark. Bank Nifty and Fin-Nifty soared to record above 44500 level and 19950 level respectively. Nifty took nearly seven months for the Nifty to cross its earlier record level of 18,887 hit on December 1 last year. Strong buying from foreign institutional investors (FII), improving domestic macroeconomic conditions, better corporate earnings and fall in monsoon deficiency boosted the market sentiment.  Auto, metal, FMCG, Pharma and IT stocks were major gainers today.  Nifty soared 154 points 0r 0.8% to close 18972 while touched intra-day high of 19011. Bank Nifty advance 206 points or 0.5% to close at 44327 while touched intra-day high of 44508. FIIs were net buyers Rs12350cr (Block deal on Adani Group) while DIIs were net sellers Rs1021cr previous day.
 
·      Nifty Technical Levels – Nifty formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and given a consolidation breakout of last ten trading sessions. It has been forming higher highs on weekly scale from last fourteen weeks and supports are gradually shifting higher. Now it has to continue to hold above 18888 zones to extend the move towards 19200 and 19250 zones while on the downside support exists at 18888 and 18777 zones.
 
·      Bank Nifty Technical Levels – Bank Nifty overall trend is strong with buy on dips stance. Now it has to hold above 44250 zones for an up move towards 44500 then new life high of 44750 zones while on the downside support is seen at 44250 then 44044 levels Actionable BUY – IndiGo, Indian Hotel, SBI, Bajaj Finance,
 
·      Brokers Radar – CLSA TGT on Tata Motor at 700, 360 One TGT by Citi at 600, Morgan Stanley TGT on MCX at 1125, JEF MAN 1830, MCX TGT . Man Jef 1830, L&T TGT by  JP Morgan at 2900. TATA Motor TGT by Macquarie at  624 and Nomura TGT at 610. Bajaj Auto TGT by Macquarie at 4541 and Nomura TGT at 5223.   
 
·      Events – Wipro Buy-back final day, Fiscal Deficit and Eight Infrastructure Industries data, Aadhar PAN card link final day today.
 
·      Corporate Action  - Aegis Logistic Rs1.20, Alufluoride Rs2, Bajaj Auto Rs140, Bajaj Holding Rs13, Bajaj Finance Rs30, Bank of Baroda Rs5.50, Ddev Plastiks Industries Bonus 1:10, Glaxo Pharma Rs32, Maharashtra Scooter Rs60, Nippon Life Rs7.50 and Sona BLW Rs1.53 
 
·      Global Data – Personal Income and Personal Spending  (US). Quarterly GDP, Private Consumption and Export & Import (UK). Retail Sales, Unemployment Change and Exports & Import (Germany).  CPI, Consumer Spending and PPI (Germany). – Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI (China).
 
·      Market Summary – Tata Communications to Acquire US-based Kaleyra for About $100, Sheela Foam to acquire rival Kurlon in Rs 3,250 cr deal: Report, Tejas Mk 2 to be ready for first flight by 2025 after HAL-GE Aerospace deal, Bandhan Bank triples its branch presence in less than 8 years, US-India Plan to Make Artillery Guns, Armored Vehicles, Govt approves PM-PRANAM to boost balanced use of fertilisers; Rs 3.68 lakh cr subsidy on urea till Mar 2025, Bad-Debt Ratios Fall to Decade Low at Indian Banks, RBI Says, MCX extends support services contract with 63 Moons for another six months at ₹125 crore per quarter, ICICI Securities to be 100% subsidiary of ICICI Bank upon delisting
 
·      Tata Communications – Company agreed to acquire US-based communications services provider Kaleyra for about $100 million. The acquisition will help Tata Communications expand its communications platform-as-a-service business globally.
 
·      Multi Commodity Exchange - Company has extended the support services being rendered by its existing software vendor, 63 Moons Technologies Ltd. for six months beginning from July 1, 2023. In a regulatory filing, MCX informed that the consideration for the same would be ₹125 crore per quarter. – Avoid
 
·      ICICI Securities - Company will delist and become a wholly-owned subsidiary of parent ICICI Bank. The company stated that the board of directors had approved the delisting plans and agreed on a share swap ratio. The public shareholders of ICICI Securities would be allotted 67 shares of ICICI Bank for 100 shares each of the brokerage firm
 
·      Focus on Banking stocks - Soured-debt ratios at Indian banks narrowed to the lowest in 10 years as the nation’s financial system remained resilient despite global headwinds, according to the Reserve Bank of India. The bad-loan ratio was at 3.9% of the total loans at the end of March 2023 compared to 5.9% in the previous year. The central bank expects the ratio to fall further to
·      3.6% by March 2024. – expects positive for SBI, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank, Canara Bank, Indusind Bank, RBL Bank
 
 
·      Focus on Fertilizer stocks – Government approved a new scheme PM-PRANAM to incentivise states to promote alternative fertilisers and reduce the use of chemical fertilisers and also decided to continue the current urea subsidy scheme for three years ending March 2025, with an outlay  of Rs 3.68 lakh crore.- Expects positive for Chambel Fertilizer, Coromandel, GNFC,  GSFC, RCF, FACT.
 
·      IPO Listing Sebi has approved a proposal to reduce the time period for listing shares for initial public offerings (IPOs) from 6 days to 3 days. The new timeline will be implemented in two phases, with voluntary compliance starting from September 2023 and mandatory compliance from December 2023.
 
·      SBI Life – Company re-appoint Sharma as MD and CEO - Positive
 
·      Focus on defence stock - The US and India plan to jointly manufacture artillery guns and armored personnel carriers, said the US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti in New Delhi on Wednesday.- expects positive for BEL, Bharat Dynamic, Bharat Forge.
 
·      Sheela Foam to acquire rival Kurlon in Rs 3,250 cr deal: Report - Sheela Foam will fully acquire rival Kurlon Enterprise Ltd, buying 100 percent of the company in two tranches for a cash consideration of Rs 3,250 crore. Acquiring Kurlon Enterprise, maker of the Kurl-on brand of mattresses, will help Sheela Foam, known for the Sleepwell brand, nearly double its market share.- positive
 
·      Bharat Petroleum: The company’s board approved raising up to Rs 18,000 crore via rights issue. - positive
 
·      PowerGrid: The company approved an aggregate investment of Rs 388.94 crore. It will invest in establishment of Telecom network for NTAMC at an estimated cost of Rs 164.38 crore, Western Region expansion scheme at an estimated cost of Rs 115.09 crore – positive
 
·      HDFC: The company acquired 612 equity shares of Xanadu Realty, representing 5.46% of its paid-up equity share capital upon conversion of 938 compulsorily convertible debentures held by it in Xanadu – positive
 
·      Canara Bank: The bank approved Rs 7,500 crore by way of debt instruments. – positive
 
·      Tata Chemicals: Life Insurance Corporation increased stake from 5.06% to 7.12%.- positive
 
·      IPO Update - PKH IPO open today with Price band between 140-148. Idea forging IPO subscribed over 50 time
 
·      ITC – Company has completed the acquisition of an additional 857 compulsorily convertible preference shares of Rs10 each of personal care products brand Mother Sparsh Baby Care for Rs11.54cr. With this, the company’s shareholding in Mother Sparsh has increased to 26.50% from 22% - Positive
 
·      TVS Motor Ties Up with Zomato for Last-Mile Deliveries – Company partnered with food ordering platform Zomato for last-mile deliveries using electric vehicles. TVS Motors will deploy 10,000 scooters to fulfill deliveries for Zomato and ensure the delivery partners will have access to charging stations – positive
 
·      Hariom Pipe – Company has completed installation and commenced production from two new MS Pipe Mills at plant located at Mahabubnagar District. With this, the total installed capacity of MS Pipes has gone up to 1,32,000 MTPA from the current 84000 MTPA – positive
 
·      Nykaa -  FSN E-Commerce Ventures has approved the following investment proposals: - To make further investment up to Rs20cr in FSN International Pvt a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, on rights basis; and to make further investment up to USD 2mn by FSN International in one of its overseas subsidiaries viz., Nessa International – Long term positive
 
·      Bandhan Bank – Company has achieved a milestone of tripling its branch presence in less than 8 years of its operations. The Bank now has a total of more than 1,500 bank branches – positive
 
·      Kamdhenu Ventures – company’s Board recommends Bonus Issue in the ratio of 1:1 – positive
 
·      BEML – Company wins 385cr order for supply of high mobility vehicle – positive
 
·      Promoter entities raise $1 bn by selling shares in Adani Green Energy, AEL -  The promoter entities of Adani group sold part of their stake in Adani Green Energy and flagship Adani Enterprises to raise $1bn The proceeds will be used by the promoters to pre-pay debt, banking sources said. About 4.8cr shares, or 3 per cent of total equity of Adani Green changed hands and 1.6 per cent stake or 18 million shares in AEL was sold via block deals to several investors. Total shares worth Rs 8,542 crore were sold.
 
·      Focus on Sugar stocks – Sugar cane price hike from Rs305 to 415/100kg – expects positive for Balrampor Chini,, Dhampur Sugar
 
·      Tejas Mk 2 to be ready for first flight by 2025 after HAL-GE Aerospace deal - Tejas Mk 2 light combat aircraft (LCA), which has faced delays, is expected to make its first flight in 2025 with an American engine. GE Aerospace has signed a deal with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to produce fighter jet engines.
 
·      Kamdhenu Ventures – Company has, considered, approved and recommended a Bonus Issue in the ratio of 1:1 – positive
 
·      IDFC FIRST Bank - Company has announced raising Rs. 1,500 crore of Tier-2 bonds in domestic Indian Bond markets.
 
·      Star Housing – Company announced the appointment of Kalpesh Dave as the Chief Executive Officer and Anoop Saxena as the Chief Operating Officer
 
·      Inflame Appliances – Company has bagged an order for 3650 Chimneys from LIVPURE PRIVATE LIMITED, Haryana amounting to Rs. 1.95 crores, and thereby expanding its customer base and adding one more milestone to its expansion. – positive
 
·      Gland Pharma - The US FDA has conducted Pre-Approval Inspection (PAI) for Seven (7) Products and Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) Inspection at the Company's Pashamylaram Facility at Hyderabad between 15th June 2023 and 27th June 2023. The inspection was concluded with ONE (1) 483 Observation. – Avoid
 
·      Swan Energy – Company to raise Rs. 690 crore through preferential issue at Rs300 a share (CMP 256) – Positive
 
·      Ramco Cements – Company have commissioned Line III at its Ramasamy Raja Nagar of 3,000 TPD capacity of clinkerisation. This is the first integrated cement line, commissioned in the last 15 years in the South of Tamil Nadu. – positive
 
·      Pearl Global – One of the largest garment exporters has announced its strategic expansion into Guatemala, company has acquired a 55% stake in Pearl GT Holdco Ltd for a consideration of USD 550,000. – positive
 
·      Shalby Ltd – Company has signed an agreement with Divine Super Specialty Hospital Pvt. Ltd., a leading hospital in Ranchi having capacity of 60 beds, to establish a Franchise‐Owned Shalby‐Managed (FOSM) hospital in the region. – positive
 
·      PNC Infratech – Company signing of a concession road agreement projects  between Ministry of Road Transport & Highways Govt of India for implementation of the Hybrid Annuity Mode (HAM) road Project in  Uttar Pradesh – positive
 
·      ICICI Lombard and ICICI Prudential Life – Both companies have jointly launched an insurance solution, 'iShield', which will provide customers with both health and life insurance.- positive
 
·      South Indian Bank – Company signed an MOU with Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd (Automobile division) for providing the latter's dealers with financing solutions.- Positive
 
·      ZIM Laboratories – Company has announced strategic investments in Australia and the MENA region to expand its presence in Developed and Pharmerging markets. – positive
 
·      Zydus Lifesciences – Company has received tentative approval from the USFDA for Palbociclib Tablets - positive
 
·      Focus on Real Estate stocks - Home prices up 14.7% in June quarter in top cities: ET Report - Expects positive for real estate stocks after the media report that the robust demand has helped residential property prices across India's top 13 cities witness 14.7% growth from a year ago and 2.2% rise sequentially during the quarter ended June 30, showed a Magicbricks PropIndex report. Expects positive DLF, Oberoi Realty, Godrej Properties, Prestige Estate and Lodha
 
 
 

Derivatives update

*Derivatives update*

Good morning !!
Derivatives update for Friday, 30th June 2023.

India VIX was up by 1% from 10.78 to 10.88 levels. Volatility is holding below 11 zones which is supporting the bulls.  

Nifty *Put/Call Ratio* (OI) increased from 1.21 to 1.41 level. 

Since it’s the beginning of the new series, Option data is scattered at various far strikes in monthly series. On weekly front, Maximum Call OI is at 19200 then 19300 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 18900 then 18800 strike. Minor Call writing is seen at 19300 then 19200 strike while Put writing is seen at 18900 then 18800 strike.

*Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 18600 to 19300 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18750 to 19200 zones.*

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 44000 then 43000 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 44500 then 45000 strike. We have seen minor Call writing at 44500 and Put writing is witnessed at 44500 strike as well.

Bank Nifty Put Call Ratio decreased from 1.46 to 1.19. Implied volatility rose from 12.04 to 12.40 levels.

Bank Nifty (CMP 44,327.8)
Data setup for Bank Nifty suggests a trading range in between *44044/44250 to 44500/44750 zones.*

Looking ahead at the FII’s derivatives activity, there was position unwinding in index futures, index options and stock futures.

In the cash market, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 12350 crores while DII’s were net sellers worth 1021 crores. FIIs Index Long Short Ratio increased to 66.42%.

Derivatives data and price set up suggests, Nifty has to continue to hold above 18888 zones to extend the move towards 19200 and 19250 zones while on the downside support exists at 18888 and 18777 zones.

Bank Nifty has to hold above 44250 zones for an up move towards 44500 then new life high of 44750 zones while on the downside support is seen at 44250 then 44044 levels.

Thank you. Have a great trading day and weekend ahead..!!

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Advisory Desk

From Advisory Desk 27th June 2023
 
Market Outlook: US market closed lower due to profit booking in heavyweight stocks. However, futures were trading slightly higher ahead of FED Chairman Powell's speech. Asian markets have begun with a mixed performance, while the SGX Nifty is indicating a flat to positive opening. On the domestic front, there has been a significant decrease in monsoon deficiency from 47% to 28% within a week, which is positive for our market, particularly for sectors like Auto and FMCG. Yesterday, Nifty did not follow the selling trend seen in the previous two sessions and is holding above the lower end of the current range and 20 DEMA. We continue with our buy on dips strategy with a stock-specific approach. Today being weekly expiry, we expect Finnifty's range to be 19300/19400-19625/19778. Tomorrow, our market will be closed due to a public holiday.

Actionable: Buy M&M, Godrej Properties, Trent.
 
Global market:
DOW:  - 12
SGX NIFTY:   + 30   (prev. close 18704)
NIFTY 50 : 18691
Sensex : 62970
 
Institution:
FII:                 -     409    Cr
DII:                +     250    Cr

NSE:
Advances:  1797  / Declines:  1860

Currency:
Dollar: $ 82.04
Dollar Index: 102.62
 
Commodity:
Gold: $ 1937  per ounce
Crude: $ 74.70  per barrel
 
Bonds:
10 year US bond rate: 3.72
10 year Indian Bond rate: 7.07

Derivative:
PCR: 0.90
VIX:  11.39
 
Updates:
 
Bharti Airtel: The telecom major has announced changes in its leadership team in Airtel Business. Ajay Chitkara has resigned as CEO and will continue with the company until the third week of August.
 
Aditya Birla Capital: The Aditya Birla Group company has opened its qualified institutional placement (QIP) issue with the floor price set at Rs.175.99 per share. Sources told that the fund raising is likely to be at Rs.1,750 crore.
 
ICICI Prudential - The company received a show cause cum demand notice from the Directorate General of GST Intelligence for not paying tax of Rs.492.06 crore from July 2017 to July 2022. The company also deposited Rs.190 crore without accepting liability in this case.

HAL: Board to meet today to discuss equity share split and also, to recommend the final dividend for the FY22-23.

City Union Bank: The Board of the bank has approved raising capital up to Rs.500 crore through the QIP route.
 
Securities in ban: HINDCOPPER, RBL BANK.
 
Derivative View: On option front, monthly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 18700 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18600 strike. Option data suggests an immediate trading range in between 18550 to 18800 zones.
 

Derivatives update

*Derivatives update*

Good morning !!
Derivatives update for Tuesday, 27th June 2023.

India VIX was up by 1.38% from 11.24 to 11.39 levels. Volatility was slightly on the rise but overall lower levels is keeping the market choppy in a smaller range.

Nifty *Put/Call Ratio* (OI) remained unchanged at 0.93 level. 

On option front, monthly maximum Call OI is at 18800 then 18700 strike while maximum Put OI is at 18700 then 18600 strike. Call writing is seen at 18700 then 18950 strike while Put writing is seen at 18600 then 18650 strike.

*Option data suggests a shift in lower trading range in between 18500 to 19000 zones while an immediate trading range in between 18550 to 18800 zones.*

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 43500 then 43000 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 44000 then 45500 strike. We have seen minor Call writing at 44200 and Put writing is witnessed at 43600 strike.

Bank Nifty Put Call Ratio decreased from 0.88 to 0.84. Implied volatility fell from 11.69 to 12.26 levels.

Bank Nifty (CMP 43,641)
Data setup for Bank Nifty suggests a trading range in between *43250/43333 to 43800/44044 zones.*

Looking ahead at the FII’s derivatives activity, there was long built up in index futures, call & put selling in index options and short covering in stock futures.

In the cash market, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 409 crores while DII’s were net buyers worth 250 crores. FIIs Index Long Short Ratio decreased to 53.26%.

Derivatives data and price set up suggests, Nifty has to hold above 18666 zones to witness an up move towards 18750 then 18888 zones while on the downside support exists at 18550 and 18500 zones.

Bank Nifty has to continue to hold above 43500 zones for a bounce towards 43800 then 44044 zones while a hold below the same could see some weakness towards 43333 and 43250 marks.

Thank you. Have a great trading day ahead..!!